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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3601)	1/20/2006 2:18:47 AM
From: Crabbe	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 218055

R, that's the old dichotomy: Sort of like the "New Economy before the crash of 2000-2001? No longer is there a caste system of capitalists and workers, king and serf, state and proletariat, master and slave. What world do you live in? There are few people under 50 that have the resources to survive a world wide class war. Are you too blind to see that the illegal immigrant in the US, the African and Arabic population of europe, the poor African American population in America, the upwardly mobile Asian population with the new factory jobs, etc., etc. are going to be willing to just go back to Mexico, go back to North and Central Africa, or to starve in the dark in American Ghetto's. Forget the poor with essentially no jobs, what about the office workers in every country? I could list people after people that have neither the resources to survive much more than a week or two, month or two at best, nor do they have the knowledge or skills to move to other forms of employment. In fact according to most of the worlds news services the recent riots in France were caused by unemployment of the Arabic and African Youth 21%+. There doesn't seem much risk of many at all not surviving other than by their own blunders [H5N1 etc notwithstanding - I mean by human competition]. This is not a case of human / human competition, it is a case of human / machine competition. You recognize that we are building IT, truly intelligent computers. On the way to IT, machines will; as the steam engine, internal combustion engine, and electricity, replaced human muscle power, will replace the requirement for human brainpower. You are familiar with IBM's ASCI Purple, Blue Gene W, and Blue Gene/L. All new computers that have processing power equal to or much in excess of the human brain. Blue Gene/L is approaching 4 times the human brains total processing power. Moores Law now projected forward to 2015 Doubling of the number of transistors on a chip every 18 - 24 months, basically project the computing power of Blue Gene/L to be in desktop computers by 2015. We have discussed other advances that will by the Turing model qualify as sentinient beings. Where will be the need for office workers, etc. Our present economic systems depend on labor as the basis for monetary distribution to the masses. What will be the basis for distribution when labor is not required, either as muscle power or brain power? Most people are ignoring the obvious, it is inevitable, be it tomorrow or 100 years from now that there will be no requirement for human labor. I estimate the world has one more economic cycle, one more recession that we will probably recover from in about 5-6 years. The following recession about 2015 - 2020, will be a world wide depression which we will not recover from, short of world wide class war and a total economic restructuring. What are we going to base any new economic system on? A system that has essentially free goods. You are aware of falling world wide prices for everything. Travel by flight is essentially free today, compare to Several hundreds of dollars for a flight in 1960 to a couple of hundred today notwithstanding inflation of approximately 1000% in the intervening years. Electronic's quality has increased and price in those same years has dropped to next to nothing. Perhaps computers would be the best example, a computer then filled a room and cost Millions, it was slower than today's smallest pocket calculator, calculators that are given away as promotions, taken home in the shopping bag and then ending up with the bag in the garbage. The transistor is the most manufactured item in the world more numerous than letters on the printed page, books, magazines, newspapers. Over 1,000,000,000 are manufactured each second, they cost less than 50 nanodollars each. They are cheaper than the cost of printed letters on your computer screen. At any moment in time more transistors will have been manufactured in the last year than existed at the beginning of that year. Last January Intel manufactured its 500 millionth pentium, this year alone Intel will manufacture 300 million. The process goes on quicker and quicker and quicker. Which means fewer children as they won't be able to afford so many. The successful tend to be sexually selected. Check your statistics, your above statement is just plain wrong. The more affluent the group, then fewer the children on average. What is the reproductive rate of NZ, compared to say Indonesia? Africa? r