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Technology Stocks : Alphabet Inc. (Google) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (6439)	1/22/2006 2:04:20 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15857

With a cult stock, discussing numbers is akin to counting the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin- POINTLESS. Do you remember during the dot.com mania when every single analyst on wall street produced thousands of pages of reasonable sounding bullshit that justified why EVERY ONE of those flying pig stocks should be worth even more? Right now Google has a market cap that's equal to half of the entire advertising industry in the US. That's insane. Period. All the analysis of its profits means nothing when you have wiggle room for "future P/E" or Year 2007 Estimate multiples, etc etc. All that matters is that Google is a cult stock, and will trade based on greed and fear and not fundamentals. ------------- Do some # crunching for us and add to the discussion in some concrete ways, eh?

To: Jill who wrote (6439)	1/22/2006 2:43:06 PM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15857

Jill The whole basis of conventional number crunching is that the returns are normal, and standard deviation is a useful measure of risk. But GOOG is quite different. If one still insists on betas, it stood at 4 during the last week. That should put it in the category of emerging market debt, and boost the risk premium to truly obscene levels. IOW, a far lower price. So, how do you analyze such a stock? - it's technology and the lock on technology - it's user base, and lock on user base - it's operating universe and changes in the content structure of the web - it's economy of scope (e. of scale has already been proven) Can the technology shift? Can the increasingly non-roman-alphabet nature of content alter it's position? Will this DOJ case not make people a little more wary of what they search, and where. To be sure, it's a wonderfully positioned company. Capable of, for example, oh-so-subtley biasing the media via the g-news. For example, someone on the thread suggested that Google raised this DOJ thing from ashes -- highlighting the fact that MSN and Yahoo complied with the govt. request. Stock returns are certainly nice but clearly nothing like those in 1999 or 2000. And I too have access to Yahoo!Finance. It's hard to also believe every word from the analysts either. You never know how their dice are loaded. Regards -d