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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bond_bubble who wrote (51466)	1/25/2006 10:31:25 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RE:"What is your general economic opinion?" I'll bet there is a correlation between how much real estate you own and your opinion on the economy. <G>

To: bond_bubble who wrote (51466)	1/25/2006 11:08:46 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

What is your general economic opinion? I have a difficult time understanding why people are so negative on the economy after three great years in the stock market. Even clients of mine who have just had their best years ever (and no they aren't in real estate) think the economy is far worse shape than it is. Back in 1998 I was a lot more scared, my expenses were out of control and it looked like the Asian contagion would spread. Even though revenues were through the roof, it seemed that we were shipping money, expenses were rising faster than revenues. The stock market distracted everyone from real business. Things are much more sane today. My big corporate customers are very conservative about spending and there is little excess. When people say we will recess I say, "From what?" We haven't had a boom to recess from. Back in 1999 I got a lot of calls from clients where they said things like, "Money is no object." To me that is always a warning sign, I like it better when they say, "Give me an estimate and I'll get back to you" Yeah, there is rabid speculation some places in RE, but who cares, it doesn't scare me. The speculators will wash out, they add nothing and detract nothing. My house is still worth the same to me that it was before someone drove up the prices of the others in the neighborhood, I have almost no debt. It bothers me a little that I felt compelled to sell some investment RE that I would have rather held onto though. I'll buy back my investments when nobody likes RE again which is inevitable. My friends all thought I was nuts when we bought the properties we just sold even though they were cash flow positive the day we bought them. So far every single piece of RE I've sold has been early and so have most of the stocks I've sold in the last three years.

To: bond_bubble who wrote (51466)	1/26/2006 12:19:44 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

Perhaps mixing together your views with Grace's gets the more likely scenario down the road. Question is do we just get a regional RE collapse, some debt cleansing and the real economy on a national and worldwide basis stays strong with goldilocks of low inflation/low interest rates and continues to grow after a brief recession that is most likely looming on the horizon? Personally I don't see it getting real bad without much higher rates on the long end with some combination of inflation, currency crisis and (or) oil prices getting out of control. But I have to look at the likes of GM, Intel, Pfizer, and GE and wonder. These are real economy bellwethers and they are breaking support and sitting at some serious low points.