SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/26/2006 2:03:53 PM
From: dougSF30Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 275872
 
Joe, I followed your lead today, and moved out of my remaining positions in AMD. A little stock and leaps, but mostly July calls. I don't think AMD is necessarily headed much lower, but I think it may be flat until the K8L/65nm is selling.

Used some of the proceeds to buy more Intel 2008 call leaps, this time at a $22.50 strike. Looks to me like investors have priced in a crappy Q2 for them already, but not completely sure, hence the long time frame.

Of course, I am nauseated to think I'm now in the same investment boat as that moron tecate, wbmw the dissembler, etc.

I, too, will consider re-entering, once the relative performance of the K8L vs NGA becomes clear, along with a solid launch timeframe.



To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/26/2006 3:20:02 PM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
Consider this...
Message 22375974



To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/26/2006 5:04:34 PM
From: AK2004Respond to of 275872
 
Joe

probably not a bad move. I personally sold a lot of covered calls which to some degree amounts to the same thing. Well, my position is somewhat riskier

-AK



To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/26/2006 6:24:25 PM
From: heatsinker2Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
Joe "I sold all of my AMD shares" Bad move, ditto for Doug. If you're getting squeamish, you could have done an EPhud and sold some covered calls, almost always a moneymaker.

Long term outlook is still great and it's foolish to sweat the short term.



To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/27/2006 8:07:18 AM
From: DRBESRespond to of 275872
 
history would argue that your timing is correct...if it works out you have me to thank...i am counting on "this time to be different" ...it really is you know...the poor country mouse has money this time around...a whole buncha money....



To: Joe NYC who wrote (195153)4/27/2006 2:59:52 PM
From: RinkRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
Sold my remaining 40 Jan 20's for about $14.10

- Too much uncertainty about K8L. Performance and introduction date. Charlie somewhat confirms that K8L might be a Q2 thing like I suspected already; basically K8L might well not be the first 65nm product.
- Added performance caused by 3rd gen strain (SiGe) might well not make it to rev F this year
- Intel pulling in NGA release dates (at least comparing to what I thought it would be)
- Possible very aggressive ramp of Woodcrest
- Intel is cutting prices significantly enough to limit AMD's upside to guidance this Q
- Most importantly sentiment might favor Intel's upcoming NGA for a while. The street might think all Intel's advantages in H2/06, H1/07 (until K8L) might outweigh AMD's massive capacity increases.

I plan to trade AMD when I think good news is coming. I might trade Intel too. When we know more about K8L I might get back in. Also if I think sentiment might start changing again in AMD's favor I might get back in too (I think sentiment is often overreacting, but it influences the stock prices often rather significantly).

In addition to some trades and owning Spansion shares I'm now looking for another stock with good leverage based on technical fundament. I own Spansion shares based on the same thing (tech fundament - shares, not options, because I think it'll go up nicely over a bit longer time). I don't like SUN until I see a turnaround plan I like (I'm not convinced they are set to cut costs deeply enough). I'll probably trade Cray before DARPA funds are determined. I'll be looking at eastern europe as well (like Czech Republic, Poland, not Russia).

I'll continue posting here.

Regards,

Rink