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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (1568)	5/14/2006 3:35:39 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50326

re: ["I think Buffett missed the silver run all together..."] We'll it looks like he made at least 50%+ on just the initial early 1998 delivery. Jason Hommel had speculated that Buffett -- just recently supplied the physical Silver for the SLV ETF buy...implying to the 'bugs that he in essence bailed out the market...ie: ["Jason Hommel, Editor of “Silver Stock Report” previously told Resource Investor that “we just don’t know” where the silver will come from to back the ETF, and it is possible that Warren Buffett could be the supplier, which isn’t causing a shortage in the market."] Further in the RI article: ["The CPM Group estimated earlier this year that Buffett still held somewhere between 100 and 129 million ounces."] ...if he held that size "earlier this year" -- then it appears the market swallowed up 100+ Million Ounces on this ride ? stockcharts.com Regardless of the speculation on when he sold -- the major point is this: Berkshire & Buffett now publically confirm no more USD Short....and no more Silver. Reports of Buffett buying Silver originated all thru the decline of 1996 into the public disclosure of 1997 -- so it looks like he accumulated a massive position from the mid $5's down to the eventual bottom of $4.08. I would say that qualifies for being: -- early Quoting the Resource Investor Article: ["Buffett purchased an estimated 130 million ounces for delivery in 1998. In February 1998, the silver price jumped to a high of $7.81/oz, rallying 50% since mid-1997."] I would say that +50% "V" spike would qualify for: -- riding the right bull And the "estimated" 130 to 190 million ounces he accumulated over time, certainly qualifies as: -- large and/or levered From the Berkshire Hathaway Annaual Meeting: "According to the source, no sell price, date or addition data were given other than the announcement that the company no longer owned any silver." So, I guess speculation, myth and conjecture will have to fill that void, but FWIW: Here's a chart reflecting the general consensus of Buffetts major entry/exits: stockcharts.com And lastly....Buffetts final words of wisdom vis a vis Silver & the recent run in commodities: Buffett said he detected speculative participation in the recent run up in prices, particularly metals. “What the wise man does at beginning, the fool does in the end... any asset that has a big move based on fundamentals will attract speculators...,” he said, according to sources. “Something like copper is speculative on both sides of the market, and responding more to speculative than fundamental forces,” he added. As I said earlier... "food for thought" (and it sure beats DQ) SOTB

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (1568)	5/14/2006 4:10:43 PM
From: ecrire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50326

I think Buffett is given too much credit for his speculative ventures. I don't think he did well at all in his US$ short position, in fact the position was mostly covered at a loss. Silver was probably profitable but carrying charges from 1998 certainly impacted the result.

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (1568)	5/16/2006 12:38:54 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50326

re: [" I think Buffett missed the silver run all together..."] Hmmm? -- that's not what the other 'bugs think: From the article you linked: ["Jason Hommel, Editor of “Silver Stock Report” previously told Resource Investor that “we just don’t know” where the silver will come from to back the ETF, and it is possible that Warren Buffett could be the supplier, which isn’t causing a shortage in the market."] ["The CPM Group estimated earlier this year that Buffett still held somewhere between 100 and 129 million ounces."] Then there's the usual speculation, conjecture and conspiracy theories: gold-eagle.com Actually, I'm surprised that someone hasn't written a story for gold-eagle yet...speculating that Buffett was blackmailed by the "cabal" and was forced to surrender his Silver in exchange for the Government ceasing the investigation into his Insurance derivatives shenanigans with AIG ? And to make sure I'm following the usual twisted thinking of the bugs here... you all want to bash Buffett "now" -- because he has come out and said the unforgiveable: "that commodities are in a speculative bubble" Here's what the recent posts about Buffett seemingly want us to belive: 1. That Buffett who bought at least 100 Million ounces of Silver in 1997 between $4 & $6...missed the run all together ? stockcharts.com 2. That he also didn't make any money on his US Dollar short. ....really now? stockcharts.com 3. That becuase he refused to invest in the mania during the Internet & Tech Boom to Bust Bubble... that we should thus dismiss anything he says now, about commodities presently being in a speculative bubble ? ...well, that's entirely logical....what was I thinking. 4. That he quote/unquote -- "played with derivatives" ...."and got his Silver called away" ...yup'... old' Warren "The Metals Speculator" -- that had to be it...Mad max'd out on derivatives....what were David Morgan, Jason Hommel and the CPM Group thinkin' ? ....(you'd think the 'bugs would all be on the same page (vbg). 5. And we are now to take his eternal self-effacing witicism about -- "having sold too early and not made much" ...and literalize that -- into he "missed the move all together" ?!?! ...puh-leeze. Some of you seem to want to pat ole' Warren on the shoulder for his self-effacing modesty with one hand and then bitch-slap him upside the the head with the other, for -- missing the move. ...now which is it? ....simply amazing. The "bugs" all wanted to use ole' Warren as a posterboy for their cause given his massive U.S. Dollar Short and 190 Million Ounce Motherloade horade of Silver...and quoted him in headline, after headline for his comments about derivatives and the U.S. Dollar... untill: -- he closed out his U.S. Dollar Short -- he sold all his Silver And now that he's exited those positions and has committed the most blasphemous sin in all 'bugdom -- by calling commodities a -- "speculative bubble" ...now, you're all turning on him as if he's just some old irrelevant fossil, who's out of touch and who's missed the boat ...so, why should we listen to anything he says now !?!?!?! WHODATHUNKIT !?!?!?! PS: Gekko lied. Greed is not good. ...at least today it wasn't for the 'bugs....now was it? And in case any of you 'bugs are getting any of those 100 point HUI Death March deja vu all over again shake out jitters...you just might want to try a pink polar nightcap: 3 parts Jack Black 2 parts Pepto Bismol You also might want to look out upon the horizon...vis a vis: Consumer sentiment plunges to 7-month low. Current attitudes plunge 13 points, most in 28-year history of survey. marketwatch.com. Then there's that 2008 U.S. Presidential Election -- that's only 17 months away. ...an election that just might change everything: From Iraq & Iran, to U.S. Dollar & Fiscal Policy. Only 9 months until the campaigning starts, 12 months to primary elections and in less than 18 months -- America will have a new President. ...massive change is already afoot. What do you suppose caused ole' Georgie boy to finally decide to do something about the border ? Hmmm? ...the noose tightens. tic' toc`