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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7106)	6/10/2006 7:34:57 AM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217771

"...we can feel fairly sure, that the hair will grow back" This doesn't sound like TJ.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7106)	6/10/2006 7:51:49 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217771

Look to the UK and the pound Sterling. Since WWI UK is going down, but they haven't just disappeared. They still carry some weight. Same will happen to the US. It will slowly return to a natural size.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7106)	6/10/2006 2:21:37 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217771

TJ, There are reports of trouble in Chinese banks. If China's CB has to bail them out, and in the process has to unload US T-Bills to fund said op, I think your gold bet will be the only game in town. Not bonds, nor commodities, and certainly not equities. I am slowly unwinding Puts and bear funds to buy gold as it drops the next few weeks. If we get a Fed pause, the market will rally for several weeks, and I will open new Index Puts. USD is in a Bull, so I'll keep my USD Bull fund to 92 on the USD Index (it may ultimately hit 95) Here is also a good place to add to oil sands but I think we will have more than one chance to add this year and all buys should be made with one caveat. There is a current tendency to see xyz commdity stock as 'way too cheap' at these prices, assuming current commodity prices and demand picture. The coming correction in Chindia will fix LME inventories in a jiffy. (Hang on, we already had the Indian correction!) Anyway, such rear-view mirror approaches will become more irrelevant as the depth and breadth of the global slowdown is appreciated, and when sentiment sours (we think businesses hold too much cash now, we aint seen nuttin yet I say) all that cash sloshing around (augmented with Bernanke notes printed to fight deflation) will find its way to...gold! D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7106)	6/10/2006 2:29:02 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217771

Hello Ray, exceedingly few folks are predicting the demise of the American economy, and with it, the USD. Hello TJ, I agree with you on many things but not this one. At least, not in the USA as of the last 6 months. A google search on 'falling dollar" produced 20,300,000 hits, it is covered very well here on Business news and newspapers and magazines. However, it is true that the US is running up huge debt both government and consumer, compared to a lot of other countries and all being equal, it's currency should get weaker. But our wise friend Elmat has pointed out, all is not equal. Americans have run up great debt because they can. Credit and debt are as American as apple pie. An American who makes, say $100,000.00 a year, might owe a combined debt of $500,000.00 or more. Where else in the world is this possible, sans businesses? I being older than you, draw from personal experience more than text books and history, not that I am suggesting history isn't valid,but personal experience impinges more. When I arrived in the USA around '75 there was similar talk of the dollar going to hell, R.E. crashing, stocks etc., in fact TEOTWAWKI. I quickly invested in commodities, gold , silver etc., and to cut to the chase, went broke. At which point, I shifted from focusing on the economy, to ways to make a buck. Within 6 months of getting my green card I owned several California income properties and a house in one of the nicest areas of town. The first property was bought with a $1,000 cash, charged on my newly acquired credit card and $1,000 from a partner. My point is, where else is that possible? What other country could you get that kind of credit with no work history. America runs on credit. Now will it run forever like that? NO. Are you correct in saying that in the long run it has to be paid back, absolutely! However, I think it was Kenyes that said "in the long run we will all be dead". Again, I defer to Elmat "demise of the American economy. No! return to the natural size!" in that post he refers to Britain contracting and that is true, however look at the time span. Will the USA loose dominance militarily, politically and economically? Without question. Will it happen in our lifetime? In Coconut's? Probably to some degree, but TEOTWAWKI still hasn't happened to the Brits for all their cock ups by government. Having said all that maybe it is different this time which is why a little diversification and gold as insurance is a good idea. :} BTW I will route for TT except against England, they are tough :}