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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (192580)	7/22/2006 9:36:26 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I have yet to see any believable explanation as to how S. Lebanon is to remain terror free under ANY body (Israel, UN, Lebanese) when Israel cannot control Gaza, and USA cannot control Iraq. Why is it going to be different here? Good question. Perhaps it may be possible because the locals from time to time are much tougher against terrorists then either America or Israel can ever be, considering their western sensibilities. Think Black September. No state within a state ever since. Or - I forget the name of the Syrian town that older Assad bombed into stone age, killing multitudes of Arafat's boys... who threatened to become too powerful. The lebanese are "softer"... and their loyalties are deeper divided... but if Iran and Syria would give up supporting Hizballah, it would become quite helpless fast.

To: neolib who wrote (192580)	7/23/2006 5:53:29 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

At one point Egypt and Jordan also wanted to push all Jews back into the sea. Egypt and Jordan governments may have treaties with Israel, but their populations dislike of Israel's existence remains pretty high.

To: neolib who wrote (192580)	7/23/2006 5:24:07 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

A couple of thoughts for sunday. 1. the wild eyed left yelled at this admin that containment deterrence be used against saddam. Whether its overkill or not, thats what the israelis are doing. If for arguements sake the US is deterring NK about use of nukes and NK uses one on Japan, the US would obliterate the North. If you want to credibly deter someone, you must be willing to follow thru on the threat. Thats what israel is doing. I am sure that this was clear to both hizbollah and lebanon. 2. When this current war is over, the basic building blocks for democracy do exist in Lebanon. No dollar amount is too much to make a future lebanon an example for Palestine to emulate. It should be made clear that hizbolla and hamas can play a political role, but no militias permitted. 3. Iraq is a country in a sectarian war and the populations are beginning to shift. Sunnis will fight shia for control of bagdad and kurds for control of Kirkuk. The US should not be involved in taking sides in this and should start withdrawing from battle. Let the populations sort themselves out and then encourage a federal solution if the hatred hasnt gotten the better of all sides or some sort of either three state solution or even two if sunnis and kurds can settle the problems on their borders. I think the two state is possible and may be the best. Any shiaaocracy aligned with iran absorb its militias in a national army. Shiaa leaders need to neuter al sadr and the same goes for sunnis and al quaeda foreigners.

To: neolib who wrote (192580)	7/23/2006 11:41:09 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

At one point Egypt and Jordan also wanted to push all Jews back into the sea. So there is some hope. Tactics used to achieve those results are crucial however, and I don't see current USA & Israeli tactics as being useful, but rather quite the opposite. But since both governments have made peace with Israel, there have been relatively few incursions by either official, or unofficial, entities into Israeli territory. Lebanon, which has only an Armistice, but no peace treaty, with Israel, has been a haven of various armed groups using it's territoritory for carrying out their own agenda of pursuing war against Israel. Whatever the final outcome of the recent confrontation in S. Lebanon, it's pretty clear that some entity, either the Lebanese army, UN peacekeepers, or the Israelis, are going to face the task of disarming Hizbullah and restoring the rule of law, and the sovereignty of S. Lebanon to the Lebanonese people. Hawk