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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (54146)8/2/2006 2:24:27 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market . . .
bloodhoundrealty.com



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (54146)8/2/2006 2:34:16 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Christmas in July
$100,000 off
darn
It's too late
khov.com



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (54146)8/2/2006 10:04:00 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. July auto sales drop, Toyota surges
DETROIT, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales slid 17 percent in July as Americans shunned trucks and opted for more fuel-efficient cars, catapulting Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) past Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) into the No. 2 spot for the first time.

Detroit-based automakers suffered double-digit declines in sales from the peak of last summer's incentive-driven boom, with DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group and Ford hardest-hit in a market hurt by high interest rates and gas prices.

Chrysler Group lost 37 percent and Ford 34 percent, but Toyota jumped an industry-leading 16 percent, driven by a 25 percent surge for passenger cars such as the Corolla.

Sales for Japan's Honda Motor Co. (7267.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) gained 10 percent and South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. (005380.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) added 6 percent, putting all three Asian automakers on track for a larger share of a softening U.S. market for new vehicles.

General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 1 automaker worldwide, posted a 19.5 percent drop in U.S. sales, in line with expectations, given the tough year-earlier comparison.

Autodata Corp. reported that overall sales of U.S. light vehicles came in at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 17.24 million units in July, down from a near-record high of 20.72 million a year earlier when the traditional Big Three offered employee discounts to all buyers.

Chrysler Group, which has been working to sell off inventory ahead of the launch of key new models, was the only automaker to bring back employee pricing this July, a sequel that fizzled with U.S. consumers.

DaimlerChrysler's sales dropped 34 percent in July, a steeper-than-expected drop that analysts said underscored Chrysler's reliance on rolling out new hit products rather than competing on price.

Chrysler responded to its weak July sales numbers by extending its package of discounts, including employee-level pricing and zero-percent financing, until the end of August.

"Consumers are wrestling with higher interest rates and other increased household costs on a monthly basis," said Michael Manley, vice president for sales strategy at Chrysler.

Ford's sales were weighed down by a 44 percent slide in its profitable truck line-up, an area of the market the automaker has long dominated.

"Ford and Chrysler were just simply disappointing," said Jesse Toprak, an analyst at Edmunds.com who had forecast higher sales. "It's a quite dramatic decline."

Said George Magliano, analyst at Global Insight: "I think for Chrysler it's very short-term and shows how product sensitive they are. I'm more worried about Ford. Ford is more structural, I think."

GM, which touched last summer's price-war, has steered clear of a repeat of the same kind of sweeping rebates this year.

"I would view our results as very solid," said GM sales analyst Paul Ballew. "In fact, better than what we expected at the beginning of the month, and better than we thought even at midmonth."

Last year's summer price war boosted the number of cars sold but sacrificed profitability for both the U.S. automakers and their dealers. The incentives also made monthly shifts in auto sales highly volatile.

"What we aren't going to have in (2006) was this roller-coaster that we were on in (2005)," said Ford sales analyst George Pipas. "We're aren't going to see the peaks and hopefully we won't see the valley."

Reflecting their fall from favor with consumers, large trucks and SUVs carried higher-than-average discounts of more than $5,200 on average in July, according to Edmunds.com.

Despite the drop in July sales, GM, Ford and Chrysler all reported progress in reducing vehicle inventories, in part because of production cutbacks.

GM had 930,000 vehicles at the end of July, down 21 percent from the previous month, while Ford reduced its inventory by nearly 15 percent to 677,000 vehicles. Chrysler's inventory declined 14 percent to 560,210 vehicles.

The defection from SUVs also hurt some luxury car makers in July. Porsche AG (PSHG_p.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) suffered a 23 percent drop in demand for its Cayenne model, even as its overall sales rose 12 percent on the back of strong demand for the Cayman coupe.

By contrast, new compact and sub-compact models have proved popular. Nissan Motor Co. (7201.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) said it sold 2,856 of the new Versa compacts in July, double the company's internal forecast.

Nissan, which is considering a tie-up that would extend its current alliance with Renault SA (RENA.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) to include GM, posted a drop in overall sales of 16 percent, outperforming the market by a slight margin.

"Sedans are selling well, and trucks have not done well. A lot of the fuel price is showing its effect," said Brad Bradshaw, Nissan vice president and general manager. (Additional reporting by Poornima Gupta and Jui Chakravorty)

today.reuters.com



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (54146)8/2/2006 10:14:55 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 1, 2006--Sales of Massachusetts single-family homes fell steeply in the second quarter to the lowest figure for the comparable time period since 1995, according to a report issued today by The Warren Group of Boston.

* * *

"[T]he number of homes sold is lower than at any time in 11 years," said Timothy M. Warren Jr., CEO of The Warren Group. "That slowdown, though, is a market correction, leading to a soft landing and not a plummet in prices."

home.businesswire.com

Why should anyone want to buy services from someone who says something as stupid as that?
Seriously we are in mid air and ground may be 30,000 feet below.
We have not landed yet so how does anyone know how soft it will be.

Mish



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (54146)8/2/2006 10:23:06 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
From FreeThinker, a DJ that lives in KeyWest.
He posts on my board on the FOOL.......

Just got off phone with my good buddy who works for NOAA here in Key West.

We are close to Tropical Storm Chris turning into Hurricane Chris.

A few hours ago, Chris had sustained winds of 65 MPH. A cat one hurricane has winds that start at 70 MPH.

The track so far takes it right down the smack center of Hurricane Alley and dead over Key West. The storm . . . most likely to turn into a hurricane later today . . . is scheduled to hit us late Sunday or early Monday.

Here's the latest nhc.noaa.gov

If this sucker hits as a category 3 or higher, you can expect Key West housing prices to take a very quick fall from their already amazing big dump this year.

By the way . . . an update on my apartment house: after several blown negotiations, this place, originally on the market for $2.8 million, was sold last week for $1 million even. This deal is done and final. I'll explain what happened later. But just know, the blood is in the gutters down here. And I ain't buying til it floods the streets. Give this another 2 to 3 years, especially with a trillon or so in ARMs resetting in 12 to 18 months.

Key West has got an open class warfare in words going on in the newspapers about town. A sure sign the top is in if I ever have seen one. Add that to your arsenal of tools that the Bubble has burst: when lesser blue collar mortals can only bitch about no affordable housing, you can bet the market is approaching a top, has hit the top, or is bursting and the workers aren't realizing it yet.

Higher rates, resetting ARMs, foreclosures, huge inventories which would take 5 years to sell at todays rate of sales, and on and on. Fools buy here. Never seen anything like this in my 16 years of living here. People everywhere losing their minds as they realize their Housing ATMs have run out of cash and they are stuck with a fast depreciating asset which can't be sold at the click of a mouse. Upside down is the new reality for a growing pool of folks down here.

It's getting uglier by the day too. Higher real estate taxes just passed by the county government which piles on the already huge rise in insurance payments, means more homeowners are selling out for whatever they can get from Northerners. Many, many oldtimers have thrown in their hands and are running away from Key West to lick their wounds.

Add in a good sized hurricane, and I'll be one of the last cockroaches still standing and waiting for the opportunity of a lifetime.

Still buying gold, oil, commodities and soon . . . uranium and water. Dividend payers keep reinvesting. Just worked 38 night straight and put a pile of money aside for purchases of real gold coins, uranium, and water plays.

And one more thing: anyone who thinks this Housing Bubble bursting will not affect their insular communities is not paying attention to our growing Empire of Debt and what it is portending for the future of America.

I am seeing jobs disappearing left and right. Two years ago, all the real estate agents in this town were flush with cash and buying Champange Room visits at my stripclub. Today, none of them are present and accounted for. Their ads get smaller in the paper. No more full page ads.

Last week, 3 properties sold between here and a Key 30 miles away. Three properties. Who bought these things, the 3 Stooges?

I've got time, money, and patience. And I plan to write a letter to the Editor here as an unwashed member of the Mishite tribe who has had it with all the egg sucking New Money Boomers who think this economy is stronger than it has ever been. I'll re-post that letter after I write it.

Anyway, just playing catch up around Fooldom and catch up on my sleep.

Tougher than the rest,

DJ Rock

p.s. Looking for the down time of a hurricane. I'll take photos and post them this time around...