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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (59572)	8/10/2006 9:04:16 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"Well, mortgage activity back up" Spoken like a true sheep. Sheep don't look past the headlines. Do some research and you will discover that they are all REFI's! People are either panicking or they want to take out mortgages at higher interest rates. "Don't worry, this time it is different." More like "Worry, this time it is different!" There are a ton of ARM's out there in the process of adjusting. We just had the biggest housing buildout in history. We just had a protracted period of free money. The mortgage companies have been lending to anyone who can breathe (and maybe some who can't). People have been using HELOCs to pull out and spend their home equity. It really is different this time, but not in the way you are imagining. The classic downcycle will be deeper and longer. "Time will tell the tale once again." It will and is. The writing on the wall is clear for all to read. I can read.

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (59572)	8/10/2006 11:07:33 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

'prices nationally haven't fallen. Outlook for small cities booming' The transfer of equity and net worth of coastal equity locusts is in the bottom of the ninth inning. The movement of jobs and spending power of that equity transfer is ongoing. Still you have record foreclosures even now in Texas, Colorado and Georgia which are three of the main beneficiaries at this stage.

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (59572)	8/10/2006 12:24:46 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>Well, mortgage activity back up..<<< That may be due to a few reasonable souls refinancing before Bernanke starts marching rates higher again. (I just heard on BBC that the English are looking to raise their rates again, after having done so about ten days ago. Will see if I can find a confirming article). How about these numbers from Philadelphia: Real Estate's Falling Numbers 32 How many days a home is staying on the market, up from 22 days in the same period in 2005. 41,389 The number of existing homes for sale in the eight-county Philadelphia region, up almost 40 percent or 11,784 in comparison with the first six months of 2005. 48.5 Percentage that new contracts for Toll Bros. single-family homes fell in the most recent quarter. 18 Cancellation percentage for new homes reported by Toll Bros. A typical rate is 6 percent to 8 percent. If prices nationally haven't fallen yet, they surely will very soon. Prices may be propped up by the free swimming pools the builders are offering so that the folks who bought from them in the previous six months don't seize and enslave their first born males.