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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (20547)	7/28/2007 9:03:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220191

<<initially easy>> you make the assumption that there is an 'initial' and there is an apex. wrong, unless you take the initial as 6,000 years ago, and apex as 6,000 years from now, a less wrong point of departure and dot of arrival. as to alledged lack of supposed nuclear parity, what edges on usa bully-ness, at 10 cents on the aweful dollar, will go soon enough and cheap too. space parity ... mit tarined and caltech educated, also soon enough. 2015 gdp sino usa flips over on ppp and/or absolute resource used basis, and after that, teotwawki but first icbc overtakes citi in valuation ... oops, happened already, just last week, even as china makes bid for large euro bank citi brand franchise will be for sale, soon enough let's see what paulson wants next week and does not get. not to worry, a new and better world beckons, and the transition will but hurt momentarily, at the onslaught impulse phase ;0) btw, the thread title requires no change, as it will be proven to be spot on. zheng he's world will dawn.

To: carranza2 who wrote (20547)	7/28/2007 11:58:34 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220191

You seem not to realize that China is evolving. Once the only card they had was cheap labour. Now bit by bit they are improving their technology. They bought something, it is world domination in manufactured goods. They paid for this by agreeing to hold the big stack of ultimately almost worthless U.S. Govt. Bonds. You can believe whatever you want but if you forget how hard Chinese people work and study you won't come out with the right picture of the future. Scale forces automation. When you make 50 of an item per year there is no point in automation. When you make 5 million per year of the same item you become strongly motivated to automate.

To: carranza2 who wrote (20547)	7/29/2007 1:02:18 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 220191

The Futurist article has a cut of 50 million, which happens to leave out South Korea, with 49 million people, and a per Capita GDp of 24,500 USD. 2006 growth rate ws 5.1% 2005 2% 2004 2% Now South Korea is one of the economies that is studied world wide, like Chile is for some free market reforms, and Singapore for economic development, and like Japan used to be studied. For many reasons, it was hard to transfer the Japan model, but the Korea model may work for most nations with some Confuction-like cultural elements. More info - en.wikipedia.org China has multiple models running at once - a Hong Kong individual entrepreneur model, a politically sponsored local development model, and a number of national champions - Huawei, CNOOC, etc. like the companies of the Korean Cheabols. Plus a left over Leninist steel & electricity large state enterprise model. The last three get low cost capital funneled to them from various local and national government agencies. Also, China welcomes foreign investment in factories - this was what helped the non-Japanese Asian tigers grow. That FDI is also a source of capital and expertise. So what ever model works, China has it. I expect China will keep growing until the economy gets to where China decides to slow or limit growth for other reasons - quality of life/ cultural reasons most likely. There are costs to 60+ hour work weeks. [Aside - you want Mom and Dad around so the kids don't turn into punks or hippies or Paris Hilton] My guess is that will occur around 12,000 - 16,000 USD per capita, since that's when some this showed up in South Korea.

To: carranza2 who wrote (20547)	7/29/2007 8:54:35 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 220191

growth in a developing Third World country There are some huge differences between historical developing country growth and what goes on in China today. China is growing at a dizzying rate while at the same time running spectacular trade surpluses. It is investing in huge infrastructure building, while at the same time saving at mind-boggling rates. This is historically unprecedented. The closer approximation is post WWII Japan, but its trade surpluses and savings were smaller and its economic model was much different than China's free for all capitalism. The implications of China's huge surpluses are stunning, if you take a close look at the numbers. First they can potentially buy control of most world brands in the next few years. Second, at the current $300 billion per year, their trade surplus is double what the US spends on weapons procurement and development. Given that China can probably duplicate US weapons spending for considerably less money than the US spends (being the manufacturing hub of the world helps), they can duplicate annual US weapons spending using only a fraction of their annual trade surplus. Throw in the information revolution, and it's not very hard to see that TJ has a plausible theory.