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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 3:29:49 PM
From: lifeisgood	Respond to of 306849

Ok. Long SKF in size. Long SH in size. Short QQQQ in size (via puts). Hedged on everything else. Sold my gold miners WAY to early but will get back in on pullbacks. Covered my Homebuilders way to early as well though at a substantial profit nonetheless. Macro: market will realize recession is unavoidable. Significant financial write downs are only beginning. Market will be down significantly this year with possible bounce near year end. That is what I'm currently positioned for. best... LIG

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 3:34:59 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

My bucks are in gold, oil, China resources and solar. GLD, XOM, CHNG, CSL, all long.

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 3:41:40 PM
From: Travis_Bickle	Respond to of 306849

I'm sitting on cash waiting for a short squeeze, moderate position in XHB, smaller in BZH, smaller still in PHM and LEN. The bankruptcy-bound builders have to be played through puts, and the premiums are pretty steep, so I'm not in WCI HOV SPF though I would like to be, risk/reward just doesn't make sense to me at this stage, I'm not going to argue over the last $3 of downside unless I'm sure the company is going under. Gold miners have been a lot more rewarding lately than the home sector.

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 3:41:53 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

<So how 'bout it, how are people positioned? How are you putting new money to work?> I'll be the first to answer my own question. [EDIT - I see I'm not the first to answer!] I remain largely short here. I'm reluctant to go long much of anything for fear of a global unwinding that I give fairly good odds. Everyone is long "decoupling", and I'd be willing to bet (actually, I am betting) that things aren't as decoupled as the flying emerging markets and commodities would lead one to believe. My top positions are shorts against real estate, finance, trucking, and retail: UHAL LEH BBY MDC MHK CNW CNET F JNS JOE RYL MCO SHLD MS CBG, although some of those have risen to size more because they've given me opportunistic entries as opposed to their overall merit. I tend to deploy capital where risk looks minimal, even if the reward isn't as large as elsewhere. I'm trying to maintain constant short exposure against some that I think are zeros: BKUNA BOFL DSL MTG MBI ACF IMB CORS WCI OHB BZH - but that is challenging as some have no shares for shorting, and most are locked in steep downtrends with violent short covering rallies. I keep trying to build exposure against restaurants, retail, and trucking, but they have provided few comfortable short entries. And I have a smattering of airline, momentum, and emerging markets positions that I'm testing the waters on (UAUA NILE RATE Mexico India China Indonesia Korea to name a few). I had a great 2007 and don't want to give it up in 2008, but at the same time, the bear is just getting going, and one must take advantage and monetize the information one has when the opportunity presents itself. I think that the waters will be far murkier a year from now, if the markets fall a bunch with the economy going into an extended recession. "How far is down?" is a much trickier question to answer than knowing that the market is rolling over into a bear market here, especially given the lack of attention to such quaint notions as balance sheet quality, price-to-book, and yield. `BC

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 4:47:23 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

>>How are you putting new money to work?<< Gold, junior miners, canadian O&G royalty trusts. I took a small long position in PBR last week after Heebner touted it. Today was my best day ever, so there's room to be bullish in a few things.....<G/NG>

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 10:32:28 PM
From: jmiller099	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Re: Positioning I have been positioning in metals as some fixed termed certificates mature. I have an unhealthy cash balance that is rotting away with CPI and real CPI ratcheting up. Separately, I played a decent sized position on COF puts to catch half of their down move from mid 70s to 50, but I didn't stay with it til the 50s and 40s by rolling out further in time. These were on short term puts, so went up in nice multiples. I managed to lose a chunk of it in calls on FXY at the last top. Another chunk died on FRPT calls, but that is off the scope of this topic. Now, following scottonstocks post, I am positioned in near term puts on BZH. Holding still, so I probably owe him a beer, regardless of 1929crash's labelling it as cockamamie. I will probably close this soon and roll out to February soon. Trying to see if I can reverse the law that short squeeze funny business is prone to occur and always against my positions ;). I will probably take another swipe on consumer credit shorts as this quarter nears conclusion. I continue to wait to see when I can short goog, but every paper trade I make in puts on them gets evaporated so not sure I will ever get a good opportunity to catch them. Lastly, KMX is a little intriguing. I've watched it for a couple quarters and seen them take a hit on earnings each time. I have to do more DD on them, but they may have a good chance to scoop up repo cars cheap. Maybe people will be buying used for the next round of autos. Two concerns: A) Will people be buying autos or will KMX get too many used cars they can not unload. B) Does KMX finance these autos which goes against the shorting of consumer credit line of thinking.

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/2/2008 10:52:46 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 306849

Short QID, SDS, MZZ Long GLD, FXY, DBA, OIL Might add some COW -g-

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/3/2008 9:20:28 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 306849

long energy (mainly oil and gas royalty trusts), 35% long JPY, 38% long USD, 3.5% short CMBX, 11.5% short CDX, 6.5% short ABX, 5.5%

To: Perspective who wrote (98763)	1/3/2008 10:19:53 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

In order of importance, US Treasuries, gold [via IAU], equally weighed portions of Yen and Swiss Fr. [via FXY and FXF], commodities [via DBA, DBC and DXCLX, a 2x leveraged mutual fund], Sonus Networks [SONS], ultrashort financials ETF [SKF], Canada [via EWC], Oilsands Quest [BQI], Valero, ExxonMobil and QUALCOMM.