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To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 9:21:37 AM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

VERY unlikely,,,

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 11:26:16 AM
From: Sunny Jim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think it's very likely. We've just come off of a spectacular bull market and for the past five years technical patterns have worked pretty well. However, at major junctures, and I think we have just hit one, you've got to take into account some fundamentals. I think the fundamentals in the economy stink and the potential for serious down is real high. Think back to the mid-70's and what that market was like.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 12:43:15 PM
From: Galirayo	Respond to of 209892

I think that count is a distinct possibility. That would eliminate my desire to call your "B" a Truncated 5th wave.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 3:21:26 PM
From: jjstingray	Respond to of 209892

That is the question I have been posing. I think it is a very real possibility.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 3:43:41 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 209892

likely

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 8:06:23 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi, AA! What you are showing is, basically, a road map for a multi-year (secular) Bear market. Something along the lines of what took place from the late 60's through early 80's. The markets remained in a range during that period - unfortunately, in reality it was a horrible, devastating Bear market, since during the same period inflation destroyed about 75% of the purchasing power of the Dollar. It is entirely possible that in the year 2000 we entered a similar grand period of "consolidation". All the bubbles and excesses - as well as all the great positive advances of the recent decades, globalisation etc.... - may need time to be "digested". Just about 7 years ago I found this interesting observation - it inspired me to start a "bookshelf" thread to which I still remain an occasional contributor... :) Message 15376493

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/1/2008 9:04:42 PM
From: Galirayo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

BTW: B4 I get outa here tonite ... Thanks for the Alt Read on your Chart. Enjoy Phoenix .. Try Del Webbs Mountain Shadows if you get the chance and if it's still there. Right across the street from the Camelback Inn. If Gino or Ron Mei are still there .. tell em Busboy Ray from 1973 said Hi. Steak TarTare is Awesome .. prepared at the table. Just like Cherries Jubliee and Baked Alaska Oosik. lol

To: AllansAlias who wrote (163298)	3/2/2008 11:11:52 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Very likely, IMO. However, I think the massive interventions have boosted nominal prices (at the expense of inflation) to the point that your "B" in a lot of places looks more like a fifth wave top for the whole secular bull. Bubbles grow until they don't, and then they don't reflate. And as far as I can tell, real estate bubbles are about the biggest you can get. They're the single biggest asset held by the majority of the population. We can try to foster a green building bubble, or an alt energy bubble, or a biotech bubble, but I can't imagine any that would rise to a level high enough to support the creation of credit witnessed in the past decade for real estate. We can argue about whether it has a deflationary or inflationary resolution, but it really doesn't matter to an objective stock participant. Stock bulls would lag in real terms either way. And the dirty little secret of the "flat" market of 1965-82 was that long-term short-and-hold made a killing over the period. Short sellers earn nearly 2X the risk-free interest rate even if stocks just go sideways. It doesn't hurt to be short a market that only "keeps up" with inflation, either. While I'd prefer to see a booming economy with tons of new business formation and technological innovation leading a global push into alternative energy and lifespan-extending biotech, I can earn just as much money if we have a bunch of self-serving parasites running the U.S. into the ground. To an objective, unbiased market participant, it just doesn't matter either way. Of course, those are very hard to find. `BC