To: TobagoJack who wrote (38712 ) 8/14/2008 6:39:43 PM From: elmatador Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217835 Profit Opportunities From the New Cold War moneymorning.com (On top of the hill watching the tigers in the Valley.) Looking Inside From the Outside The other beneficiaries will be those countries that are uninvolved. India did well in the 1950s and 1960s through its posture of neutrality between the West and the Soviet bloc; this time it will be firmly in the Western camp, but relatively uninvolved so its rapid growth can be expected to continue. China shares a border with Russia, but its military forces are already so huge that Putin is unlikely to want to mess with them. Last time around, China was a Russian ally until 1972; this time Putin may find he made a major mistake in timing his invasion of Georgia to coincide with China’s Summer Olympic showcase. Matters of “face” are very important to the Chinese government, so China is more likely to be drawn into siding with the West, in any case an infinitely more important business partner than Russia and its rag-tag allies. Finally, Brazil is so remote from the action that its growth is also likely to be unaffected, with any attempts by Russia and its friends, Venezuela and Cuba, to sow subversion in the region being easily resisted by the much larger Brazil. A Different Kind of Cold War It’s not entirely a re-run of the “first” Cold War, to be sure. One enormous advantage is that Russia alone is much smaller than the former Soviet Union, both in terms of population and its weight in the world economy. And this time around, oil will be a major focus. If oil prices stay high, Russia’s strength might grow, but lower oil prices are now so obviously in the interest of the United States and Eurozone that they will surely pursue every avenue to get them down, including the hitherto forbidden policies of higher interest rates and offshore drilling. The “World is Flat” was – in many ways – a lovely dream, as in Thomas L. Friedman’s 2005 book. It was never entirely realistic, and certainly isn’t now. But there are many profit opportunities available for the shrewd investor in this newly lumpy world – especially one afflicted by a new Cold War.