Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (117477)	1/5/2009 3:29:17 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

You are welcome. Actually, you have given me an example that I will use on my MBA students. With correlated I think that you are getting closer to your baseline probabilities. For example, if the events were 100% correlated, you would be at a 2/3rds success level, essentially one event. With gold mining companies, it is best to be diversified to insure against independent company events. Best wishes in your investments. Cheers!

To: Tommaso who wrote (117477)	1/12/2009 8:59:01 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Tommaso, why not play inflation from angles different from gold? you could use some of that inflation play money and put it in TBT - double the inverse of the 20 year bond. if inflation takes off, TBT should do very well (perhaps better than gold) and TBT isn't nearly as correlated to the value of gold as your three gold stocks. you could buy two thirds gold and one third TBT. oil and platinum could reasonably go up big in an inflationary environment. i've nibbled on coswf and i'm looking for a platinum and possibly natural gas play. i own 1/3 position in CEF (i'm willing to plunk down two more 1/3 positions should the opportunity present itself), 1/3 in COSWF, 2/3 in TBT and a NGD "option" (that's the way i'm treating it. i'm looking for 200% to 300% gains or nothing with a smaller sized bet. i'm looking at a natural gas and, possibly, a platinum play. if oil keeps falling but gas at the pump keeps going up, i might buy into an large gas company if the share prices falls far enough when relatively poor earnings are released. runaway inflation is a key component of my investing thesis in each case. i think such a strategy presents a dramatic diversification improvement over using 3 gold stocks to play a bet on big inflation (which we both are pretty convinced will happen).