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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (116366)	1/8/2009 2:00:05 PM
From: Jim P.	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206810

Dennis, Would it be possible that Ethane rejection as a feedstock for ethylene production is throwing the estimates off. Following is a link to old information (2004) on the U.S. Ethylene production. I believe the information must be valid. 209.85.173.132 In a nutshell when the ethane crack spread is negative then crude oil inputs will be substituted for the natural gas feedstock. I have read that this can occur at high levels for up to 3 months before it causes problems with the lack of certain byproducts that the industry gets from ethane but not from the crude inputs. The recession/credit crisis is causing inventory liquidation in the production of ethylene feedstock. U.S. production of ethane in 2004 was 682,000 barrels a day at 2.9 million btu's per barrel or 1.8 billion cubic feet natural gas equivalent btu's per day available to be returned to the natural gas stream. Crack spreads look to have been negative based on the natural gas to crude oil ration for most of the last 6 weeks. It looks like this could account for a significant portion of the error in the estimate of gas storage levels. Any thoughts? Jim

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (116366)	1/8/2009 5:19:44 PM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206810

EIA Reports 47 Bcf Draw, Stocks Strong, But Gas Could Weaken Credit Suisse analysis Link: sendspace.com

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (116366)	1/15/2009 10:31:34 AM
From: Dennis Roth	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206810

94 BCF draw - Much less than what was expected by the wire service surveys. Expectations were: Dow Jones Survey -102 Bcf Bloomberg Survey -105 Bcf Reuters Survey -106 Bcf BENTEK Storage Rpt -101 Bcf robry825 2003 model -112 Bcf, 2005 -125 Bcf, 2008 -112 Bcf z24blackjet -116 Bcf quehubo -125 Bcf Last year's draw -91 Bcf Five year average -88 Bcf Summary Working gas in storage was 2,736 Bcf as of Friday, January 9, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 28 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 81 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,655 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 40 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 72 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 95 Bcf above the 5-year average of 804 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 3 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 26 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 19 Bcf. At 2,736 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. eia.doe.gov