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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (12714)	10/24/1997 12:35:00 PM
From: Gaston Teran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

OK, I don't understand the market. We seem to be overreacting to every single bit of news. Normally if I were to catch Intel 25% off its highs (it's down 25 pts since the 104 highs) and Dell after a quick 10 pt fall, I'd jump at the chance. But the market's movement is surprising me on a daily basis, which is not good. Forget trying to anticipate the next day's movement. Maybe the international financial troubles along with many other things have everyone running wild and full of emotions. And look at the bond market, it's doing great! Very odd market. If anyone can help put things into perspective, please do so. Gaston

To: Mark who wrote (12714)	10/24/1997 12:54:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Mark- I got involved with some trading- I think we need to see things in right perspective- I just covered my shorts and have decided to play the market on back of bonds- the bonds are in a strange situation if it is confirmed that market has no inflation they go higher if inflationary threats continue market will drop to 910- once market atarts dropping bonds will be flight to quality- so how does bonds will collapse market from here will go forward on good news but bonds willl also lead the market -I am long bonds and will hedge my exposure thru bonds- sell 116 and buy 118- if something happens to market to test 910 I will consider that to be a very bullish thing for bonds- so even if bonds are not going to sell on bad news we are certainly going to see this thinking gaining currency- this only an angle but I think market is oversold on all accounts and therefore I have covered my shorts- bonds will protect me from here.

To: Mark who wrote (12714)	10/24/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

Mark, was that a question to me or to my uncle? -g- For about 3 months I am theorizing that US economy will slow and bonds are safe havens. This is a case of bond and equity divergence. I think Buffet has had the same strategy. When he was buying bonds in early August, everyone ignored it. But a month later when WSJ reported that Buffet bought bonds, a lot of folks jumped in to bonds. I don't understand why, in this information age, it takes so long for the news to disseminate! -g- While the bons strengthened, a lot of brave folks took it as a strong case for equities and we have seen new highs on S&P. No matter what the vested interest (Inv bankers, analysts, mutual fund managers) say about earnings, I am not impressed by the earnings quality. Even if they were to be as good as they are potrayed to be, the market has already dicounted the "good" in the prices. I don't know if you remember one of my posts early this month on this thread. I said don't buy calls/shares in earnings anticipation or if you do, it will be suicidal. The reason is simple, when the game is so well publicized and well followed, it won't work. Besides, when a vast majority has already bought, who else is left there to buy? This, with all due respect to people who have done this, is a classic case of dumb-money chasing stocks while the smart money is doing something else (buying bonds.) In the recent Asean turmoil, this phenomenon is exposed and now a lot of folks can see it. With valuations so high, we don't need a catastrophe to tip the balance. Asean troubles have exposed the weakness in US markets, IMHO. They have not caused it. Also, for those who think every dip is a buying opportunity, I think the market is going to send a wake-up call very soon. Trust me, at some point dip buying won't work. I think we are close to that. Very close. This is my unorthodox view of what's happening. As usual, I reserve the right to be wrong. -Moan