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To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/24/1997 9:13:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>Bullish info was there when DRAM prices were climbing to $10, when Appleton showed he was getting higher margins up to 49 %, When MU was improving efficiency, reducing cost, when MU was gaining market share, when MU announced using Lehi for additional testing, when asians announced reduction in 16 meg, when asian factories were being planned for shutdown during summer, When antidumping stopped asians from shipping etc. etc, etc,<< david, about the dumbest thing i ever heard of is betting that a korean dram holdback is going to last forever. all your statements about bullish arguements were tied to the holdback. as for getting kicked in the ss, yes, we did. however, tr5he longs no longer have an ss and weren't smart enough to even understand the interacting dynamics that led to 1 good q. however, i'm back full force and expect to make over 100% on mu investments, even though the herd ran wrong for 10 months. all the buy and hold bulls will be at a substantial loss at that time. then i'll say i was right and it made me wealthy. :-) the problem with warped paradigms like the bulls had is that they don't understand reality. betting that the koreans will hold back inventory forever is just dumb.

To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/24/1997 9:19:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>MR. and Sridhar gave you good information and you laughed and lost<< i never heard any fundamental info form mr or sridhar. i did hear "don't bet against a billion dollar company," "the stock is going up so everything is ok," "nobody cares about earnings," "demand will pick up and overwhelm supply" (with zippo underlying supporting data) and "the trend is your friend.". well, the rug was pulled out underneath them, though mr was smart enough to sell. dave, i will not fight a bull market tout-a-thon anymore. i did learn that lesson. the bulls' gullibility factor is astounding. instead, i will wait for a complete and utter disconnect between reality and stock valuations and hit them hard. like when mu hit $60 while dram was tanking. then i will make a mint. again.

To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/24/1997 9:47:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

david-- come on. i wasnt even posting then. i came back into MU when DRAM started dropping. i have been following MU for along time. sure, i shorted a little, and i even lost once when i went short at 47 when MU was on its way to 60. however, i more than made back my 2 point loss with the short at 58.75. and i had a great time doing it.see i always short with a tight stop so i dont have to worry about getting eaten alive. i told others to do that as well, and if they listened they would have done really well. when that info was out, the proper attitude would have been bullish, except for the reductions from asia. that would have been a bearish indicator that would have told you oversupply was on the way, as was a trade dispute.however, when it was posted here in mid summer, the stock was already overvalued. and for all your denigrating of us using achilles, we were more accurate using it for EPS than ALL the analysts and you. and by the way, the last time i was really bullish this stock was between 16 and 20. i was buying heavily then. i will be again when it returns to that. so, missing your little nonsense rally( and it was nonsense, based on the indictors around during the summer like declining margins and spot pricing, and asian cutbacks) really didnt impact me at all. besides, the rally from 47 to 60 was based on TK, not on fundamentals or sridhars analysis. sridhar was just lucky that TK was around to pimp intel, and a little of it rubbed off on MU. i couldnt have foreseen that. have any doubt? look at the charts. that rally sure as hell didnt last very long. the basic point is that when we are wrong we admit it. i have many times. we build up evidence and data to support our positions, and we post it ahead of the curve. so, by not listening to sridhar, i missed a very dangerous and explosive 13 point rally. but by listening to bears, i was able to make 30 points on the decline. i'll take the latter over the former any day of the week. so, in short, get off my back and stop insisting that i am not listening to anyone but bears, and that i am ignoring the bullish side of things. i'm not. a bullish indicator is MU buying new equipment. however, it wont have an impact for the stock for a couple of quarters. time is what we need to be looking at. just because something good happens now, if it will have impact further down the road, you really need to look at what will happen in the intervening time. BTW--if that modem stuff is the best you can do, you better stick to posting analysis and tips. good luck to all, trey

To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/24/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

DavidG, Feel disinclined to argue so I hesitated to post this but I gotta ask - you're a trader right as Larry keeps saying - so why do you care about the fundamentals?????? Yet you keep talking 'bout them. MU could make the edible kind of chips for all you should care. Hey man, it's just 2 letters on a screen. The other thing is Achilles. Are you being disingenuous or what? The bears used it to predict MU's ASP to within 25 cents last quarter. Tell you what, come Nov.30 you post your ASP estimate and I'll post mine ... oops forgot, you don't care about the fundamentals (g). 'MU ... tanks for the memory' regards, Mike

To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/24/1997 11:19:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

DavidG, as one who's been bearish for a while, I'll enter this debate and hopefully not introduce any new flaming. You bring up a couple of good points re "Bullish info was there when DRAM prices were climbing to $10, when Appleton...etc, etc." However, my contention during that time period was that in an industry where costs of production increase exponentially/MU tended to amortize capital expenditures over c. 5 yrs/they had lower capital expenditures in 96/etc, the only way MU should have been priced above $20 (much less $30)would be if they had huge profits and seemed in a likely position to be able to keep them. Huge profits because their accounting was/is Pollyannaish, b/c they keep assets on the book longer than is proper, and because they have distinct needs to grow to be able to meet the skyrocketing costs of building fabs. The reasons you've mentioned are all examples of temporary fixes to long-term problems that MU faces: for ex. 16 meg prices went up, at least in part, because of the anti-dumping suit and because of transitions to 64 megs- the big question when DRAM was going up was just how long they'd stay up when these fixes were no longer present. Did MU increase their cash position significantly? Yes, but probably not enough(depends on what happens- if they could reduce their tax liability for next April it would look MUCH better). Did MU face the huge challenges facing them re 64 meg and SDRAM? Seems that way, if you can believe the press(I don't, but then I'm a bear right now). Also, you were short when it was up there, right? What I would like to hear is a good analysis of MU's abilities to meet their Promethean cash needs over the next 2-3 years, not the next few months. Heck, they might be able to do it(help from Uncle Sam, they make enough money to survive and possibly grow, they merge with someone with some significant cash/size, etc.). Would be interested in your or anybody's inputs on this subject. Good luck.

To: DavidG who wrote (22900)	10/25/1997 3:02:00 AM
From: Kathleen capps	Respond to of 53903

>>Bullish info was there when DRAM prices were climbing to $10, when Appleton showed he was getting higher margins up to 49 %, When MU was improving efficiency, reducing cost, when MU was gaining market share, when MU announced using Lehi for additional testing, when asians announced reduction in 16 meg, when asian factories were being planned for shutdown during summer, When antidumping stopped asians from shipping etc. etc, etc, David, All those things were bullish, but the problem was that they were all extremely short term and event driven. None of the bullish items you mentioned indicated a long term positive trend for MU. I would be bullish on MU if there were increasing demand without supply increasing even faster. You seem to be more of a short term trader than I am. You're right, in retrospect, I could have ridden MU up for 10 months and made lots of money. But again, 10 months ago, I couldn't forsee the future, I took my position on MU with the information I had and watched how it played out. I don't apologize for it or whine about making what is in hindsight, a "bad decision" -- just like I wouldn't be here apologizing if things had turned out the way I expected and I made lots of money instead -vbg-. Good luck to you on your investments Kathleen