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To: IKM who wrote (5026)	10/27/1997 5:51:00 PM
From: IKM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

BTW, there will be some margin calls tonight.

To: IKM who wrote (5026)	10/27/1997 5:54:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

IKM, you said: "I'd wager few like you who are willing to wade in in front of a tidal wave of selling." Wrong, because for every sold share, there was a bought share. Maybe the actual number of selling people was greater than buying people who therefore had deeper pockets, but the actual number of shares bought and sold was identical. So there were plenty of people prepared to step in front of the tidal wave. But as you say, most people were at work, didn't know about the market, will get the margin call tonight. Panic, lock in gains, albeit reduced, tomorrow and watch as more margin calls come through. Is debt hard on the outside and soft in the centre or firm on the outside and crunchy in the centre? I really don't know, but hope that it is firmer, the further through the debt levels they go. Squishy on the inside could mean a colossal, all time in human history, forfeiture of assets to lenders taking over the security they accepted. Meanwhile, the New Zealand stockmarket has really taken fright and has dropped 15% today after some decent drops last week! Several major stocks down 20%. All good fun. I think you are right and Greenspan thinks the stock market was overvalued so won't be in any hurry to print money/cut interest rates or whatever you want to call it. 7% isn't much in the grand scheme of things. Hardly a pimple on a pumpkin. If it drops 30% tomorrow, THAT would be cause for people to sit up and take notice. What is impressive is the fact that everything has gone down. Nikkei, Dow, New Zealand [very significant fact as we are operating on Tuesday news already], Hang Seng [Hong Kong has announced money printing already], FTSE. But very noteworthy, gold has hardly budged. Oil sags. It all adds up to "In the US dollar we trust". Well, not me. I say money supply controllers love nothing more than to print. They have done it for hundreds of years and now that there is no gold standard, they can simply fiat the money into any realm they like. So, today, most people are stuffing money into mattresses rather than the market. They are holding cash rather than buy into this market - bidding the price down. That means interest rates will drop, especially if the Fed and pals indulge a worldwide competitive money printing to "stabilize" things and rip off savers in the time-honored fashion. That means that as soon as people stop being frightened of their shadows, they'll look at their returns on cash holdings, see a pitiful return [not even 0.5% in Japan] and head back to stockmarkets where real things are being done of real value for real people. Microsoft included qdog, though their P:E is higher than I'd like even though they have a good share of pc software and pretty good prospects. So, I'd keep my powder dry [if I hadn't fired it all at Qualcomm at $42 in the last panic over their prospects] and buy when everyone is hiding, with their cash sticking out of their back pocket, peeking at the stockmarket with newly found respect. While behind them, Alan G. is plucking 15% more from their pocket with his invisible and painless extractotomy printing machine for the Feds to spend. Relax, enjoy the golf and saunter down to the broker when the crowds have gone and he is wishing a customer would come in to take advantage of his narrow margins and low trading volume. As qdog says. 7%? Fiddlesticks! Mqurice

To: IKM who wrote (5026)	10/27/1997 6:05:00 PM
From: qdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

First, he does have the ability to act without FOMC vote. He did it in '87. Second, he will view this as just as destabilizing as he was uncomfortable about it's lofty hieghts. What it will do is cause folks to reconsider their expectations, which are unrealistic when you query folks and the expect 30% and rising returns every year. Right now, his lack of comment Friday helped exerbate this decline already. Folks were looking for some sign from God and ionstead he talk about some general economic BS that had nothing to do with the present. Right now you are at or near 15% decline and approaching a panic. He'll act mid morning or noon. Then natural market worries will rule for a couple of months as investors start to lower there horizons and go back to accepting 10-15% returns with the usual decline in recessions. The wealth effect has been whack pretty good for now.