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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChanceIs who wrote (203885)5/23/2009 10:46:04 AM
From: Think4YourselfRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
Look at your chart and think of the fundamentals of the economy. Does crash come to mind?

In looking at that chart I remembered some other charts recently posted and a new idea dawned on me. Must confess that it made my skin crawl. Many people compare now to the Great Depression. That seems reasonable but the credit bubble this time was larger, as was the housing bubble that preceded both events. Now we have a horrifically large debt bubble building. What if we haven't even seen the stock market crash yet? What if what we just went through was all just a prelude? Maybe this isn't 1931 but actually 1929.

If that is the case then...well...let's just say some major changes are coming to this society.



To: ChanceIs who wrote (203885)5/23/2009 11:00:39 AM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
DIN - I've actually been re-reading their 10-Q, because I'm thinking about going after that one pretty hard. Something just doesn't quite smell right, and I thought I might find it in the 10-Q. Of course everybody knows they had that $31M in one-time gains due to asset sales and debt extinguishment. (I was actually surprised to see how *little* debt they extinguished - they're still loaded up.)

What is intriguing to me is that RRGB comes out and says labor costs are an issue, at the same time DIN is citing favorable variances:

RRGB

finance.yahoo.com

Restaurant-level operating profit margins at company-owned restaurants were 17.7% in the fiscal first quarter of 2009 compared to 19.1% in the fiscal first quarter of 2008. Fiscal first quarter 2009 restaurant-level operating profit margins were negatively impacted by approximately 0.8% of higher food and beverage costs, a 0.7% increase in labor costs, including 0.3% related to the tender offer for stock options, and a 0.7% increase in occupancy costs, partially offset by 0.8% lower operating costs, largely driven by lower year-over-year contributions to the Company’s national advertising fund, which were 0.25% of restaurant revenue in the fiscal first quarter of 2009 versus 1.5% of revenue in 2008.

vs. DIN 10Q

yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com



Total food and beverage costs as a percentage of company restaurant sales decreased by 1.2% for the three months ended March 31, 2009 compared to the same period in 2008 due primarily to the impact of menu price increases, a favorable shift in menu mix and food cost improvement initiatives partially offset by slightly higher commodity costs.



Total labor costs as a percentage of company restaurant sales decreased by 1.8% for the three months ended March 31, 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. Labor expenses improved primarily due to the impact of menu price increases, more effective scheduling, better kitchen productivity, reduction of overtime and effective hourly wage rate management. In addition, labor costs benefited from a reduction in management incentive expense due to nonrecurring retention costs in 2008 and the revision of the bonus plan in the second quarter of 2008.



Direct and occupancy costs decreased as a percentage of company restaurant sales by 1.8% for the three months ended March 31, 2009 compared to the same period in 2008 due primarily to the timing of local advertising expenses and favorable straight-line rent adjustments and depreciation expense which resulted from purchase price allocations in 2008 related to the Applebee’s acquisition.

`BC



To: ChanceIs who wrote (203885)5/23/2009 11:11:21 AM
From: PerspectiveRespond to of 306849
 
RE: Stops - I have a rather unusual stop strategy, and it didn't serve me that well - I think - this latest bounce. I manually close out positions after a stop is triggered, but because of my hedging I carried a number of positions beyond their stops. I wanted to retain some exposure to restaurants, no matter how far I became buried in the position. So I stopped out of the first few, but then got clobbered as they kept running against me. I try to balance my sector targets against individual stop losses, and I'm clearly not at an optimal balance.

Some would say to just stop out of the sector entirely, but I find it harder to get back into positions then. Some of them are hard borrows as well, so I'm more inclined to hedge as opposed to close the positions entirely. I also find that I forfeit that "Omigod, DIN quadrupled, and THEN WENT UP EVEN MORE!!!" revulsion factor unless I actually have a little flesh in the game.

All this would have worked fine if I was still putting in a few hours a day on this pursuit, but I backed off starting in March. Wow, what timing to begin trying to develop a new, lower time-sink strategy...

`BC



To: ChanceIs who wrote (203885)5/23/2009 12:16:39 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favorRead Replies (4) | Respond to of 306849
 
Tyson had whole chickens on sale at my local Krogers for 0.88 a lb. I loaded up for a beer can chicken fest......