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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (101947)	9/15/2009 8:22:24 AM
From: dave9	1 Recommendation Respond to of 116555

I almost missed this post with all the other posts on food or vaccines.

To: mishedlo who wrote (101947)	9/15/2009 4:26:01 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

Hey Mish.. Gotta question for you. IMO, it's pretty obvious that unemployment is going to be an issue that we're going to need to resolve and the private market is not currently up to it. We're just not going to find a bottom under defaults, foreclosures, and decreasing consumption so long as people are out of work. So what do we do about it? How do we keep people PRODUCTIVELY employed so they are not sitting at home drawing unemployment (until it runs out) or on welfare? We can't have them working on projects that add no new economic value (parks, community centers, or other "make work" projects). But we have to have them working on something, or engaged in professional re-training and education, since our people are the ultimate investment in our country's future (or should be). So I'd like to see if maybe you might address this issue. Hawk

To: mishedlo who wrote (101947)	9/15/2009 7:58:49 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, can you please site a post WW2 example where real GDP was not surpassed within a couple of years (hint, there isn't one). I just find the whole "L" and "U" recovery nonsense. It is an unbelievably consensus view. If the Fed couldn't spot the downturn, how can they be expected to call the recovery. The market is calling for a "V" and I believe the market. We may be in a secular contraction for valuations - fair enough - but I think the S&P500 could be back to 1500 within 2 1/2 years. Emerging markets could be testing the 2008 highs by the spring 2010 - many didn't even see recession.