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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (124316)	9/17/2009 4:29:19 PM
From: Dennis Roth	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206176

EIA Reports 66 Bcf Fill, Front Month Squeeze, How Full is Full? 12 pages - 208 KB Link: sendspace.com Excerpt: How Full is Full? Storage levels now stand at 3,458 Bcf, which is 487 Bcf (16.4%) above the 5-year average and 496 Bcf (16.7%) above last year. Following today's injection, storage has now surpassed last year's refill season-end level (3.412 Tcf) and is now closing in on the 2007 season-end record mark (3.545 Tcf) with a month and a half to go until October 31. Although storage continues to track towards ~4.0 Tcf, we think that season-end levels will likely finish closer to 3.7-3.8 Tcf given producer shut-ins, downtime at Boardwalk's Fayetteville lateral (although repairs appear to be ahead of schedule) and reduced run-times at Independence Hub. Also, storage operators may be wary of stressing facilities to maximum capacity. Likewise, we would expect very light refills in October. Post the report, the October contract is trading at $3.81 per MMBtu (up 34% wk/wk). The 2010 strip has followed the front-month up the past week and is now trading at $5.93 per MMBtu (up 11% wk/wk). NYMEX Soars 34% Wk/Wk on Positive Demand Data and Short Squeeze: Over the past week, the front-month contract has soared 34% amid positive economic data and a squeeze in a heavily shorted market, as gas crossed $3.00 per MMBtu following last Thursday's storage report. NYMEX jumped yesterday to $3.77 per MMBtu following the Federal Reserve's report showing that August industrial production rose 0.8% mo/mo and that July industrial production was revised to +1.0% mo/mo (from +0.5% mo/mo prior). The industrial production report is a positive datapoint and we will be closely watching the coming month's EIA Natural Gas Monthly report (July data) for signs of industrial gas demand recovery. Recall that industrial demand has fallen by greater than 10% on a yr/yr basis for the last 6 months but declines improved to down 11.4% yr/yr in June from down 14.5% yr/yr in the May. === There are two exhibits in the report file showing the 2009 and 2010 hedge positions of the gassy E&Ps.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (124316)	9/24/2009 10:55:55 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206176

67 BCF INJECTION - A little less than expected. Expectations were: Dow Jones Survey 69 Bcf Bloomberg Survey 68 Bcf Reuters Survey N.A. BENTEK Storage Rpt 67 First Enercast 68 Bcf robry825 2003 model 69 Bcf, 2005 65 Bcf, 2008 69 Bcf z24blackjet 71 Bcf Last year's build 54 Bcf Five year average 69 Bcf Summary: Working gas in storage was 3,525 Bcf as of Friday, September 18, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 67 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 509 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 485 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,040 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 149 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 41 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 263 Bcf above the 5-year average of 863 Bcf after a net injection of 16 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 73 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 10 Bcf. At 3,525 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range eia.doe.gov