To: RetiredNow who wrote (14241 ) 3/9/2010 8:14:46 PM From: TimF Respond to of 42652 1) if health care passes, then it will increase entitlements and deficits and 2) if health care passes, their chances in Nov go down, because Americans only remember success and what they get out of the deal. I think 1 is true, 2 is false. Most of the spending for these programs does not kick in for years, while the taxes kick in much sooner, so I don't think this will be quite as hard to repeal (only difficult to repeal not almost impossible), for several years. And more to your point I don't think most Americans (particularly Americans who aren't already supporters of the bill, and Americans who would have any decent chance of possibly voting for Republicans) would feel they have gotten enough out of it to lock the Republicans out of winning in the next election. If however the bill goes in to effect, and lasts awhile (starting to spend lots of money, then building up more and more of a special interest for that money), it would probably only be repealable if its a disaster as bad as the worst claims about it by its opponents. I think it will be bad, even very bad, but I think many of the ways its bad will not be easily seen, and I don't actually think it will be a disaster, at least not in the relatively restricted definition of that term that I'm using, so I think the programs and spending would be effectively locked in, subject to modification, or perhaps even to replacement by some other big group of government programs, but almost impossible to simply repeal, or to massively reduce; at least not if the US doesn't have some fiscal crisis, and/or unexpected strong turn towards libertarian thought.