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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (10420)	11/5/1997 3:32:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Richard, I would have liked to hear about what growth they expect next year....have they had any pushout or pullin's.....what are the DRAM makers doing as far as expansion....When does he expect 300mm revenues to be "significant"....Are orders coming from expanding fabs or new fabs....Which part of the world is continuing growth....etc. I did not record the interview, but I recall the interviewer had to ask more than twice before he got an answer on the asian order impact due to currency. I guess the interview was directed towards asian issues and not at AMAT's business overall. We will have to wait till the 20th for that info. dave

To: Math Junkie who wrote (10420)	11/6/1997 10:33:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 70976

Richard and Thread, This morning's Mercury News attributes the following to Jim Morgan: "...putting the company on track to generate $10 billion in annual revenue by 2002." I assume that this is from the interview, but I didn't listen to it. Please confirm the accuracy as it is very important. IF the report is true, then AMAT will have a $4-4.50 EPS in 2002. Currently, AMAT is projected to earn $2.15 in 1998. Doubling earnings in 4 years requires a 20% compound growth rate. A long term 20% growth rate should yield a 20 forward PE multiple for a growth-cyclical capital equipment company like AMAT. This means that AMAT is FULLY VALUED at $43 and will be fully valued at $80-90 in 2001! IF anyone can refine expected profit margin and EPS for 2002, please do so. Also, please state any disagreement with the EPS growth rate/PE multiple relationship I proposed. Cary