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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Holger Johannsen who wrote (5548)	11/13/1997 9:21:00 AM
From: harrypolo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Holger, you make a very logical case. But you talk about a reality check...and the real reality check is the stock market itself. The market feels the tech stocks especially are overvalued and has reacted accordingly You can present all the arguments you want about why you feel your holdings are fairly valued...but if the market feels otherwise, and if the "herd" mentality goes against you, you lose. Speaking of herd mentalities...the herd runs on the upside as well as the downside. I don't think Sun, per se, is monstrously overvalued, just that it's losing out to HP, and is getting more and more competition from IBM and Compaq as well in its hardware dept. Java profits are still far out on the horizon. As for the Asian markets...they're a major part of Sun's business and if their economies tank, Sun tanks too. Regards, Harry.

To: Holger Johannsen who wrote (5548)	11/13/1997 12:15:00 PM
From: gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

>The main problems in Asia are overvalued currencies, a speculative >bubble in the real estate market and a flood of cheap labor from >China. This will definitely hurt bank and real estate companies and >perhaps it will slow Asia's growth in the short term (nobody knows by >how much yet). Holger, problems are mainly with southeast asia nations and have impacts on other countries like Japan, Taiwain, South Korean, etc. I did a simple analysis what caused this crisis on southeast asia nations, check techstocks.com Broke down on Hongkong market is more likely a mental broke down, over 90% of Hongkong manufacturing capacity are already moved to China, this crisis would not effect Hongkong economy a lot, the overnight loan rate in Hongkong is almost back to the level brofore the crisis, it is 12.6% right now(only about 5% higher than previous level). The good news is the strong growth in china somekind offset the shortfall of other nations. For examples like PC industies: In first 10 months of this year, the sale vaules of PC were about down 16% in southeast asia nations and 6% in japan(number could be worse considing the crisis only begining from July), but overall numbers in asia were still increased about 6%, main reason is the strong growth of PC market in China (We could expect another above 50% growth this year in China), don't forget China is the second largest PC market behind Japan in asia, according their current growth rates, China will overtake Japan to become the number one in 2~3 years, the recent interest rates cut will greatly increase the PC needs next year in china. >And more importantly most people seem to forget that Europe and not >Asia is the most important trading partner in the world. You should do more research here, go to check the first 10 trading partners of US, for years Asia has overtook Europe to become more important trading partner for US. >I also don't understand your argument about the big guys. They move >the market in the short term because they follow the herd mentality >and follow all these advices given by overpaid analysts. Is there >really any serious investor out there who cares what those people >say? agreed. >The current turmoil in tech stocks is IMO a great buying opportunity >you only get once in a while. Just as the buying was overdone in the >summer people (institutionals) overdo the selling. I still believe in >buying low and selling high and therefore I'm a buyer at these >levels. agreed. Happy Investing Gordon Shen

To: Holger Johannsen who wrote (5548)	11/15/1997 9:06:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Holger, Your discussion is very compelling and reassuring for us techno heads. There is one thing that bugs me about SUNW right now, and that is this holy war that is being waged with WINTEL. Sun has been fighting this war for years, starting at the desktop. They have pretty well lost the desktop battle, arguably. Certainly they have not won it and the prognosis is not good. Now they are fighting for the server platform (UNIX vs NT) and the programming platform (Java versus Windows). Can they, in the 3-5 year term, survive this battle and maintain their growth and margin rates? I have not formed an opinion about this, and I remain long on SUNW (and MSFT and INTC). Whaddyathink?