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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51376)	3/7/2011 8:51:51 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

Seems kind of counterproductive to me to buy CSCO even as you short KLIC but I'll play along and ask a couple of questions. First how long would you intend to hold CSCO if you buy it? Second why buy CSCO as opposed to any number of stocks? I was looking at CSCO for a bounce but now with the market decline there are numerous stocks that have not missed on earnings that may provide more bang for the buck if and when the market starts higher again. Looks like we could see CSCO go below 18 fairly easily if the market continues to decline. Might be some support at around 17.93? RtS RtS

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51376)	3/7/2011 10:14:07 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95383

Jacob, when CSCO announces the long-awaited dividend it may pop a little. Otherwise it's worth noting that the last 5 years MSFT, INTC and CSCO have similar charts. I hold some of each. I'd sell in the money puts if I really wanted the stock. Perhaps $20 strike for Jan'12 at $3. 5 year chart for the 3 stocks mentioned tinyurl.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51376)	3/8/2011 11:15:13 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95383

Did they suddenly stop letting the bartenders take the profits out the back door as "tips" for free drinks so the owners can actually benefit?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51376)	3/8/2011 5:18:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Jacob, Ubtil you brought up the chart of CSCO, I had not looked at it for a long, long time. I was really intrigued by the chart action at quarterly points for earnings reporting. In so many words, CSCO was "hammered" at those points. You would have thought the "sky had fallen" and CSCO was a "broken" company. When I looked at some of the details however, I was surprised again. The ccompany looks just fine with record revenues in the first 2 quarters of the FY and earnings pretty much in line with expectations that were set when the stock was selling at 28. Today it closed at 18.22. I looked at a collage of recent data from S&P, and the NASDAQ site to give an overview. Some analyst firms downgraded at the earnings reporting period, but presently 17 companies have a strong buy on the stock. Two have a buy, 15 have a hold and only 1 has a sell. Looking at the 12 month target range, the top number is 28, the bottom number is 19 and the consensus is 24. Today the stock closed at 18.22. EArnings per share for this FY closing in July are estimated at 1.48, the best in the last 5 years. What's not to like about the stock? Well there must be something based on the market action since last May when it was at 28. Maybe it is not "flashy" enough?LOL Don

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51376)	3/16/2011 4:31:41 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95383

SOX chart, and my positioning: Although I am short the sector, I must admit, the SOX chart still looks bullish. Remember, last year the SOX spent 2 months below the 200dma, and the 50dma crossed below the 200dma, yet this didn't signal an end to the bull market. A low RSI (below 40), has been a good entry point for semis, anytime in the last 2 years. Now at 32. But...I am not buying yet (or covering my semi-equip and airline shorts), because: The market hasn't yet appreciated the secondary effects on the global economy, of the destruction in Japan. How many components of how many products, are single-sourced from Japan, from factories that are damaged, or can't move goods on damaged roads and ports? And the risks in Japan haven't been quantified yet. It could get a lot worse. If multiple spent fuel pools dry up and burn in open air, and the wind is blowing towards Tokyo... Message 27241716 As I've been saying for months (no matter what the market did), there are too many macro risks out there, that the market seems to be ignoring. From April 2010 high to August low, the SOX dropped 24% (405 to 306), over a 4-month period. A 24% drop now, would bring us from 474 (recent high) to 360. The SOX at 360 would be modestly below its 200dma (at 382 today), and back down to end-2009 levels. I am (very tentatively) targeting that level, to begin covering shorts and going long. My strong inclination, is to watch and do nothing, for now.