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To: Dale Baker who wrote (252)11/16/1997 2:14:00 PM
From: Raymond HillRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
I have just discovered your thread. I was referenced here from the BNGO thread that I was looking at for the first time. Your question about trading versus long-term investing is one that all investors have to wrestle with and I think that the decision should be influenced by what kind of a market exists at the time. For instance, a bull market allows for more long-term holding than a market in a trading range.

However, we are continually bombarded by supposed experts that either claim the bull market is alive and well and will last for more than ten years, or that the market is on the verge of a tremendous crash that will teach us a lesson for being so greedy. I have personally handled this uncertainty by investing primarily in very few stocks that have had such superior fundamentals that I felt they would either go up in a bull market, or at least hold relatively well in a down market. Probably easier said than done.

Some people deal with this problem by segregating their position into a 2/3 - 3/4 long-term investment and 1/4 -1/3 short-term trading segment. I personally find myself so attached to my major holding at the moment, that I have kept holding it for the long-term, even though hindsight tells me it would have been smart to sell and buy it back.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (252)11/16/1997 2:44:00 PM
From: Raymond HillRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
It was interesting to me that last weekend you asked if anyone knew anything about PCTH or PCTHW. This happens to be my big holding at the moment that I cant seem to sell and do much short-term trading, because I am too afraid of being left behind when it goes up. I have been invested in this company for 15 months now and it's future potential just gets better all the time, in my opinion.

I noticed you have at least three company's stock warrants in your personal list of holdings. I was glad to see that PCTH warrants were your top choice in your research. Although I own PCTH common stock, my favorite choice is the PCTH warrants. The common closed at $5.25 and the warrant closed at $1 11/16 Friday. These warrants have an exercise price of $4.6875 and are not callable by the company until the common stays at $9 3/8 or higher for 20 consecutive trading days. The warrants don't expire until summer, 2001.

By the way, PCTH meets your criteria for growth. Earnings in year ended 5/31/97 were .17. Management is comfortable with analyst estimates of .25-.35 in current year. Sales were $34M last year, est. to be $50-60M this year, and management's goal is $150M by 5/31/2000. Pacific Aerospace & Electronics is benefiting from big increases in orders from Aerospace & Defense, as well through acquisitions. A number of these are in process.

For anyone interested in more informationrmation on PCTH, it is located under the new Aerospace & Defense category that the thread asked SI to create. Buzz Mills provides an end-of day recap after every trading day, as well as about five links to all historical and current information about the company. There are people who trade PCTH short-term and hold long-term, but everyone feels this is a superior company. Now if I could just learn to trade at the right times, I could get even more profits.

I forgot to mention these facts on the warrants: If the stock rises to the $9 3/8 callable price, the common will go up about 78%, and the warrants will provide a return of about 177%, or more than double that of the common. Of course, if the stock were to go down, the warrants would decline at a greater rate than the common. I find that most investors are more comfortable with the common, either because they don't understand warrants, or don't like the extra risk.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (252)11/19/1997 3:22:00 PM
From: Richard BabusekRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
 
Dale - Remember when shorting you (your broker) must have a place to borrow the shares. My first short (around 1970) was of a company I was sure would tank, shorted at about $85. It wound up at about $5. I was "assigned out" at about $75 because someone "demamded delivery" of the shares and my broker couldn't find another place to borrow shares for my short.

Ever since that time if I wish to short a stock I determine (or find) where the shares can be borrowed, assuming my brokers going two make one or two calls, then give up and buy me out in the same situation.

BTW there used to be (maybe still is) questionable practices on the Vancouver exchange. A collegue showed me a stock on that exchange that was beaten up to much less than book value, and the shorts numbered greater than the float, (it was selling for penney's and had pos earnings). Well my aquaintance and his associates accumulated shares for about 6 months and asked me to do the same. They all called there brokers at the assinged time and demanded delivery of their shares, it was one great short squeeze. The price went over $20 and fell back to around $5, a fair price.

This was years ago, I didn't get in (sounded too good to be true) and can't remember details.

Ricardo



To: Dale Baker who wrote (252)11/20/1997 6:27:00 PM
From: jgideonRespond to of 118717
 
Re: trader vs investor

I, too, recently looked at the market and thoguht to myself
that trading has been more rewarded than investing of late.
If the market continues this volatility and drifts sideways
with big fluctations, then trading is the way to go. However,
I simply do not have the time to trade. Gotta invest and ride
out most of the storms, or my day job will suffer.

jg