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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43838)	8/10/2011 1:09:29 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

I am curious, is anyone still in GURE? seekingalpha.com ............ > You spend cash while market is dropping. You are very likely to be out of cash before bottom. Yep!

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43838)	8/10/2011 1:21:40 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 78476

- You only spend cash when the market is recovering after bottom. (Dale is in this camp, AFAIK). Not quite - I look for some signs that the panicked mass dumping of stocks has passed, and we are bumping along a bottom of sorts. While that condition is being formed, I will be nibbling here and there if I think a stock is objectively cheap regardless of market conditions. My cash level was 42% on 10/31/2008 and down to 14% by 3/1/09. The difference this time around is that I am almost 60% cash much, much earlier. The goal is to limit losses in a bear market correction (which I consider this to be) and have a big store of dry powder for a multimonth buy period once the panic burns out.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43838)	8/10/2011 1:37:05 PM
From: Difco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

Good response - your 3 choices def make me think more about this, I just want to clarify the final point between opportunity loss vs capital loss. In March 2009 when fully invested, the choice I would have had is either a) sell something I had bought few months earlier at a loss to buy something I like better now or b) forgo the stock that I really liked given the new opportunity. Maybe that's an easier choice when you have obvious losers. I agree with you that you can't time the market and that's the last thing I'm trying to do, but opportunity cost is not timing it but seeing something that is even more misvalued (either on the up or down) - otherwise the moment you become fully invested you've already called the bottom, hence you are playing the lottery that you've already had your best shot.