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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (12994)	11/10/2011 12:51:46 AM
From: richardred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Honestly? Besides the unemployment priority. I think you have a better realization of other important issues that need addressing than the President. >I'm a very gloomy gus right now. Make sure you watch It's a Wonderful life real soon. It is the season. <g> On a different note. I do know one thing. You could have done a better job at picking draft picks than Matt Millen did.

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (12994)	11/10/2011 1:33:51 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Well said Augustus. Well said indeed. eom

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (12994)	11/11/2011 6:01:08 AM
From: John Pitera	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

HI AG and Richard, Things were this bad back when Reagan took office. But at the opposite end of the cycle. Inflation was so outlandish that the FED had to take the Fed Funds rate to over 19% twice in 1980 at the start of the year.....drop them month by month to 9% in July and move them back up to 19.75% by Dec. Kris Kristofferson and Fonda started in a move "Rollover"where the Arab's stopped rolling over their money in US DEBT and there was a global economic collapse in the move. Gold was at 1000 and ounce and many thought on it's way to 2000+. The Government had to come in and change the rules and eliminate new positions in the Silver Futures to stop the Hunt Brothers Corner on Silver. There was too much fear to let the market handle the problem. which shows you how inflation was beyond the control of the Central Bankers. The Move Network had the TV executives saying that we were in a Depression, In 1976 the New York Papers had the headlines..... FORD TO NEW YORK DROP DEAD, as NYC was bankrupt and was after Federal bail out money, The 1976 Movie Marathon Man, takes place largely in NYC and there were massive piles of real live garbage everywhere, as the Sanitation workers were on strike, at the start of the movie people are picking up their own luggage on the tarmac right outside the plane because those workers were on strike. You should have seen the Oct Massacres that occurred in Oct of 1977 and 1978, that's what they were called. The LDC debt of Latin America had our banks teetering on bankruptcy. I remember sitting by the pool in mid August of 1982 at U T in Austin reading the Wall Street Journal and there was front page speculation of a major depression. In 1964 the DJIA first took a look at the 1000 area and was sitting around at 777 on August 16th of 1982, and even bigger speculative manias had occurred in stocks in 1967-68, where the top 10 companies all went up over 10,000 % during the run up and were all out of business by 1972. Then the nifty 50 with PE's of 50,70 and 100 + in late 1973 and the big liquidation bear market of 1974-1975 kicked in. The President was forced from office and Johnson's escalation of Vietnam went so badly with the Tet offensive on the lunar new year of 1968 that Walter Cronkite came on the National News and said the was was lost. 1966 was when our guns and butter great society scheme first took Social Security and started to commingle the funds. Wilbur Mills was out in stupid scandal, Watergate was an unmitigated nightmare for the country. William F Buckley in his closing remarks in his 1978 debate against Ronald Reagan on the Transfer of ownership of the Panama Canal, talk about a group of semi-savage companies cartelizing the Oil Market. (Great Closing comments by Buckley available on youtube and you can see where Reagan got part of the Idea for his tear down this wall speech in Berlin in 1986. ( youtube.com/watch?v=5J9TTllu8eU' target='_blank'>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5J9TTllu8eU that's the Buckley Reagan clip under 5 minutes and well worth it. Human experience is one based on psychology, out own, our families, our communities, our places of worship, and Time is a very important element in creating psychology and especially Mass Psychology that governs markets, public opinion, etc. Hence, WD Gann was right that Time is the most important element in the markets. Back in 2000, bright people felt the stock market was going to return 25% a year until it did not and where beguiled into being vastly over asset allocated to stocks. In 2005 10% a year still seemed like a reasonable concept as a rate of return, Then Real estate topped and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 made Madoff's returns of 10% sound fishy, and thus low and behold they were. We are going through a SuperCycle of Deleveraging and in that respect it is worse than the late 1970's and the start of the 1980's. The issue is that Interest Rates are as low as they can go and we have a bubble in Treasuries. Change is always coming at varying velocities. Indeed it's the collapse in the Velocity of Money that has made this period possible. But looking out a few years Hydraulic Fracturing could well make this country energy independent and our country is pretty good at putting things into bankruptcy and marking down what needs to be marked down. With The Euro undergoing it's metamorphosis we need to see how many blow-ups globally we must sustain. It's kind of disheartening to see Warren Buffet's Berkshire having derivative losses this quarter when he was one of those telling us that derivatives were weapons of mass destruction. 4 to 5 years out may well have a war of a greater magnitude than what we've seen in most of our life times. But that's why the future rhymes instead of repeats outright. John