Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (105521)	11/10/2011 6:46:16 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 118717

Yes, the oil price is surprising but less so when you look at US economic growth not dead yet, Chinese and Indian demand apparently still strong, etc. As compelling as a simple, stark bearish view is right now, I have a feeling that the picture really isn't that simple. Still trying to put it together in my head, forever. That's what the next few days are for since I have a day off from language school tomorrow and more time to sit and ponder.

To: E_K_S who wrote (105521)	11/10/2011 6:51:56 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 118717

This from Sammie on the Big Dog thread: "While Cushing and overall Midwest inventories have been declining for many months now, it was the move into backwardation that really spurred the reversal in the WTI-Brent spread.">> backwardation = spot price higher than forward price contango = spot price less than forward price when market is in backwardation, it implies current demand for crude is strong. the WTI curve went from contango to backwardation in the last few weeks, which likely triggered some technical issues in WTI causing the spread to narrow. when mkt is in contango, you can buy spot crude, store it, and lock in a gain via futures. that trade is gone. commodity index funds prefer backwardation as they don't have to pay up to roll contracts, so the reversal of the curve could have triggered those funds to get more involved in the front of the curve, pushing prices higher, thus narrowing spread. brent has been backwardized for awhile and remains so.

To: E_K_S who wrote (105521)	11/11/2011 1:01:58 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

and the oil stocks are not keeping pace .... just like in 2008...

To: E_K_S who wrote (105521)	11/11/2011 8:09:14 AM
From: CommanderCricket	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

EKS, The IEA continues to post that we are drawing down global inventories and new supply isn't coming on fast enough. It's really simple. We are rationing crude with price.

To: E_K_S who wrote (105521)	11/11/2011 12:58:11 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 118717

we have the debt committee that reports back to Congress towards the end of November (I believe it is before Nov Option Expiration). This is the timeline for the supercommttee. The next big date is 11/23, 12 days from today and just before a long holiday weekend. They are supposed to agree on $1.5T in deficit reduction by that date and with rumors of complete deadlock, this could be the market's next big "worry". 'Super Committee' Timeline to Reduce the Budget Deficit By National Journal staff Updated: September 3, 2011 \| 11:32 a.m. September 3, 2011 \| 11:31 a.m. Congress returns from its summer recess and the joint select committee charged with reducing the deficit also begins its work in earnest this week. With talk of the deficit dominating headlines, here's a look at key dates for the committee. Sept. 8: The committee holds its first organizational meeting; on the agenda will be setting the rules. Sept. 13: First public hearing, which will include testimony on "The History and Drivers of Our Nation's Debt and Its Threats" from Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf. Sept. 22: Deadline for Congress to consider a resolution of disapproval for first $900 billion tranche of debt limit increase. Oct. 1-Dec. 31: Timeframe in which both houses of Congress must vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment. Oct. 14: House and Senate committees must submit recommendations to the committee by this date. Nov. 23: Deadline for the committee to vote on a plan with $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction. Dec. 2: Deadline for the committee to submit report and legislative language to the president and Congress. Dec. 23: Deadline for both houses to vote on the committee bill. Jan. 15, 2012: Date that the “trigger” leading to $1.2 trillion of future spending cuts goes into effect, if the committee’s legislation has not been enacted. February 2012: Approximate time when the first $900 billion of debt ceiling increase runs out. February/March 2012: During this period, 15 days after the president uses his authority in the bill to increase the debt ceiling a second time, is the deadline for Congress to consider a resolution of disapproval for the second tranche ($1.2-$1.5 trillion) of debt limit increase. Fall/Winter 2012: The additional $2.1-$2.4 trillion of borrowing authority from this law runs out. Jan. 2, 2013: OMB orders sequestrations for defense and non-defense categories of spending necessary to meet spending cuts required by the “trigger."