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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Flagrante Delictu who wrote (11589)	11/22/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: medsunman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Dear Bernie, for my edification, and perhaps for others on this thread as well, please be so kind as to explain what is meant by: (1) "we are in the midst of a multi-year base"; and (2) the forming of a "head and shoulder reversal pattern". I'm not familiar with this terminology, and I am curious. I've seen you mention the head and shoulder pattern before. Thanks.

To: Flagrante Delictu who wrote (11589)	11/22/1997 11:16:00 PM
From: Russian Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Hi, Bernie, You offer very good advice. For most people, and in most circumstances, I completely agree with you: margin is something best taken in moderation, or not at all. Selling at the infamous "bottom" is an experience every investor, alas, has had, and not just once. And, I can immagine (although, mercifully, I do not know this from personal experience,) that it is even more painful when the sale is forced by a margin call, rather than voluntary. But, as a long-time blackjack card counter, I am well aquainted with "normal fluctuation." I have gotten quite used to the variance inherrent in advantage blackjack play, and, as a consequence, have learned to tolerate a high level of variance in the stock market, as well. It is my practice to take a relatively small number of rather large positions (both long and short) in situations in which I have an extremely high degree of confidence. I have been burned badly, once or twice, but it has been a highly successful strategy for me, overall. Currently, the largest position in my portfolio is long Ligand warrants. The usual warning, in tales like this, is "....Don't try this at home...." ;-) Indeed, if I have taken the calculated risk of allowing myself to over-leverage my positions, it definitely wasn't a decision I made lightly. I am still far from real trouble (I am agressive, but not completely reckless. <g>) If push comes to shove (meaning, a margin call,) I haven't left myself without a couple of cards to play. Now, having made the obligatory disclaimer, I can tell you what I really think <g>: I sincerely believe that Ligand currently represents a truly fantastic buying opportunity. If I am proven wrong, it will be a very expensive mistake. I can live with that possibility. Good luck, RB

To: Flagrante Delictu who wrote (11589)	11/22/1997 11:18:00 PM
From: Proton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Re: Head & Shoulders, or just Dandruff? I believe the weekly chart is positioned in such a manner that market historians will point to & wonder why everyone didn't spot the forming head & shoulder reversal pattern that will be completed when the stock reverses... Are you referring to the pattern that started in late 1996? It's pretty ragged, as H&S's go. What's your neckline? Is it 16? If so, that is a very non-traditional "head" (looks something more like Zaphod Beeblebrox or whatever that one-point-five-headed thing was in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy). Is the neckline 14? That's a more intriguing price line, with lots of resistance, support, and congestion over the past 15 months. However, that would argue that the H&S is already completed, and that's a difficult conclusion to accept, given a. the right shoulder did not roll up, but shot up from well below the neckline to well above it, hardly classic H&S; and b. that we seem to be threatening a piercing of that neckline with the recent decline. IMHO, there are two better technical theses, one of which you mentioned. That one is the decreasing volume on the recent down move. The other technical consideration is the trendline on the weekly chart from early April, to late July, to the current low (nice periodicity there, too). This indicates that the current low must hold for the uptrend from early April to stay in force. This trendline is the DMZ between tonyt's "12" case and the more popular "It's Going to 20" scenario. If the trendline holds and the periodicity holds out, expect a two-to-three month move to the upside. If the trendline fails, 12 is the next significant stop (look at the multiple battles around 12 in the May-August timeframe). BTW, did I mention that I think TA is a bunch of hooey? {Big Grin} Pý p.s. Please don't flame me if I'm off on some of the dates: I'm eyeballing a Quote.Com Java-generated chart for this back-of-the-envelope analysis.