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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/7/2012 1:38:40 PM
From: Paxb2u	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217617

TJ---Under the cloak of darkness, it just seems that things are beginning to move at a little faster pace than your 5-7 year forecast. (At least for the US $ and its associated financing.) Have you picked up on any thing like that lately? TIA----Peace

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/7/2012 4:02:00 PM
From: RJA_	Respond to of 217617

Can they buy gold?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/8/2012 7:00:04 PM
From: carranza2	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217617

Hi, jay. Argentina.....oh, jeez what a mess. When God was making the world, he gave it oil, pampas, cattle, wheat, great vines for great wine, beautiful spots, a wealth of natural resources, gold, silver, made provisions for highly educated folks, so much so that one of the archangels suggested to the Almighty that he might be giving one country a bit too much. God: "Don't worry, I shall even things out by populating it with renegade Brits, Italians and Spaniards, they'll screw things up beautifully and things will remain more or less on an even keel." Thus it was spake and thus it became.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/8/2012 7:05:32 PM
From: carranza2	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217617

I know you don't like him, he's weird, odd, but he absolutely nailed 2008 and he sees big trucking trouble in 2013, as we all do. Roubini: zerohedge.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/9/2012 8:03:43 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217617

ya think the restriction applies to her :o) 4legs good.. 2 legs better

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/10/2012 10:27:13 PM
From: carranza2	3 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217617

One of the best, pithiest articles on the Euro crisis I've read........a lot sagely said in a few words with a few charts. voxeu.org

To: TobagoJack who wrote (92277)	7/11/2012 10:21:27 AM
From: carranza2	4 Recommendations Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217617

Coming to some fairly hard conclusions re: big pic for next year or so. Here goes: 1. Next big thing in EZ is German court decision re ESM in a couple of months or so. Or it will be seen as next big thing despite the fact that even if court agrees, it won't make a material difference because there is not enough money to backstop Spain and Italy. Assuming court agrees, and ESM goes forward as planned, IMO the impact of what I have to say will be delayed by a few months because it appears a certainty that even ESM is not sufficient. 2. There are two things that will fix EZ: a formal union into a new republic or haircuts for bondholders, Greek style. The first may happen but in a decade or so, and won't be with us in time to do any good. The second is far more likely, especially as regards Spain. Accordingly, we must think about investment implications of Spanish haircut. 3. Spain and Italy are big enough to rattle FX markets in a substantial manner. The euro therefore will drop as against the USD, perhaps to near parity, as the recognition that Spanish and perhaps Italian haircuts are necessary becomes reality. When? I'd guess this will take place within next six months or so. Implications: USD up in flight to safety, euro down, gold in USD terms down. How much down? If euro goes down 20% as against USD, then same for gold. And it could be very bad indeed in Spain because there are lots of Spanish Mrs. Watanabes, i.e., lots of Spanish debt held by households. We may therefore see significant unrest as the haircuts become reality. Media will play it as Greece times ten. Italy: lather rinse repeat, but on an even larger scale. 4. Further implications: sell gold, buy it back later as it drops. Short euro. Buy USD. Short euro financials. I think even gold-hungry Asian investors will let gold drop and buy later. If I were a major Asian gold buyer intent on accumulating, I'd let this dynamic play out. USD-holding Asians are in catbird seat, IMO. Only potential fly in ointment is the Fed. I don't see any QE in the horizon until after election, with only hints of it to tantalize and goose markets. It is fast-becoming a discredited policy, and BB has made it clear that he wants to see Congress do its job. Plus, Fed is running out of ammo. I am therefore increasing cash via gold sales of about 50% of Au, using 50% to short euro and 50% to buy gold back much cheaper as euro crisis intensifies. After the European haircuts are put in place, it will be the USD's turn, but that is a lot farther out on the horizon. A lot can happen. At the end of the day, it's the debt, massive and unsustainable. So massive that only haircuts can deal with it.