Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10745)	11/30/1997 4:12:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Dear Zeev, Our differences in opinion probably explain why the bears keep selling while the longs keep holding or buying. We have very many differences in opinion. 1. The world's semi conductor industry happens to be one of the fastest growing segment in today's global economy, it grows at 15% ~ 20% per year. Even if all the fabs have completed its conversion from the current technology to Cymi-based 0.25 technology (or "saturation" in your word), I still expect Cymi's business grow at the same pace with AMAT and other semi conductor equipment company. 2. The 30~40% annual growth rate is not current, it is future long term growth rate that has considered some "saturation" and world economy slow-down and so-on. Cymi's current growth rate is 80% ~ 300% depending on how you look at it. 3. You did not see the fact that these lasers don't last forever. If I am correct, they can only last for about 1,000 hours before parts replacement is needed. So I do see heavy recurring maintenance and service revenue in addition to new equipment sales. That will add to growth rate. 4. Because of the conversion of existing technology to 0.25 micron or under, Cymi is growing faster than other semi equipment company currently. But over a long term, these two should converge, but it will not stop growing. 5. The lithography step is awalys the most expensive step in the fab. It does not surprise anybody that heavy dose of semi quipment capital will go to the pocket of Cymi and its stepper customers. 6. You mentioned the key word about "right circumstances." Yes, the current stock market is not right, at least it's not right to value Cymi under $20. That is why I believe Cymi is cheap and it's a good buying opportunity. 7. I appreciate your sincere opinion and enjoy the debate. And I do wish you have not or will not short the stock, because it might hurt. Good luck and thanks.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10745)	11/30/1997 8:47:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, 20% for lithography sounds about right. DUV tools start at $5.5M. By the time the market for 0.25æ tools reaches the saturation point you speak of, we will be ready for the shift to 193nm lasers which should accelerate growth for Cymer again. Of course, three years or four years after that market becomes saturated, the industry will begin the transition to EUV(soft x-rays) which should give Cymer another boost. I won't try to predict what will come after that. Bob