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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (177554)	3/31/2013 8:13:59 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206154

que, Sweet & Bridge, the bottom line to me on coal switching is that, so far, with the move from last year's lows back up to $4, coal production has come back up with a vengeance. This is best illustrated by the following chart taken from a newsletter on the firstenercastfinancial.com website: [could not copy it, see page 7 of firstenercastfinancial.com .] There's no question in my mind that natty prices will rise at some point in the future, but it seems most unlikely that that point will be this year. For natty prices to rise we need to see increases in demand or reductions in supply, neither of which appear very likely to happen this year. Last fill season we had the "perfect storm" of demand for natty, a very hot summer and very low natty prices, neither of which are expected this fill season.

To: quehubo who wrote (177554)	1/23/2014 8:11:07 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hannoverian Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206154

que, hope all is well, I hope the reason that you haven't posted here in awhile is just because you've lost interest in natty. But I was wondering if I could I draw on your knowledge of the IPP industry and ask this question to you (but of course anyone else is more than welcome to chime in). With natty prices now at prices not seen in the last 3 years, the question that pops up is, is there any more coal-fired power production still waiting out there to replace natty-fired power production, or might it be reasonable to presume that every coal-fired power plant in the country that can be turned on with reasonable effort and for reasonable cost is now operating? If the latter, we could be in for an interesting ride for the next month or 2. One of the key factors that has acted as a "governor" of sorts on natty supply and demand in the last few years has been the coal-to-gas switching for power production and vice versa. If in fact we are at or very close to the point where coal switching is no longer a factor, the next question is, what happens next if natty prices keep rallying. Obviously in the LT we should start seeing the natty-directed rig count go up and more natty production should follow, but that's months away at the earliest. I believe before that we will start to see the elimination of liquids-stripping for the wells that produce NGLs in basins where the NGL prices are depressed. For example, I own a very small interest in a well in the wet gas window of the Eagle Ford Shale that most recently sold its NGLs for just $31/bbl. which works out to $5.17 per mcf (6:1).