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To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (2714)12/5/1997 1:53:00 PM
From: greg nus  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 6843
 
Brian what does a 300mm wafer cost and what is AMD's wafer capacity at Fab 25. maybe we can quantify AMd scrap chip losses?



To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (2714)12/5/1997 2:13:00 PM
From: greg nus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6843
 
Brain, AMD reported a 30 million loss on 596 million revenue for 3 Qtr96. Does 650 million brake even seems right to you? An extra 50 million increase in productin cost to cover scraping the bad chips. disc costs plus labor incurred with no return. That would push revenues to 2.6B annualized up from 2.4B Taht would give AMd a 25% increase in revenue for 97 without a profit. Due to lower than expected ASP thanks to Intel.. higher marketing expenses...and a blowout on manufacturing cost. The next thing they will suprise us with will be inventory adjustments on the other productlines. Some tlecom equips are reporting a slow down in DPS chip orders. Eporms and flash. Remember Intel took a 450million change for inchannel inventory adjustment for Cpu's due to companies like CPQ changing to the Dell model. My gut tells me we might see one for AMD non cup products aga in. it's been 10 quarters since the last one in second qtr. of 95, and the DRAMS are signaling again.



To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (2714)12/5/1997 2:55:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6843
 
For what its worth, I bought some AMD April calls this afternoon. I also covered the short end of an Intel put spread and now have Intel Jan 75 puts at a net cost less than 2.

Petz



To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (2714)12/5/1997 10:00:00 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6843
 
Brian,

I would normally agree with your logic, but that is exactly what all of us AMD investors have been doing, and we have all gotten burned. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me!

Pravin.