To: Ploni who wrote (1717 ) 12/6/1997 10:00:00 AM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2544
Charles: "He seemed to be gleefully talking the stock down,", there was no glee in my comments on CTYS. BOSCO recommended it to me because of a perceived very low PE. I just called it as I saw it and was quite wrong about the timing. I said under 4 by end of the year and under 2 by March (this was purely based on when the floorless game would have ended). I did not think it would drop as much under 2, but not having a particular joy in catching falling knives, I stood aside and invited everyone else to do the same. And, Charles, I still insist that I am not short. If I was I would be here everyday telling everyone how much money I made and further"talking" the stock down to sub 1 level. After all, if I managed all by myself to talk the stock down from 7 to 1-5/16, it should have been no problem for me to come here when it was 1-5/16 and smack it a little more. The fact of the matter is, I or any one of us posters, had nothing to do with the stock decline. The company brought it on itself, and the fact that they had to resort to a floorless security was just the hint I needed to know the company was in deep trouble. Realistically, to check if this company is worth investing in, we should verify how many shares are REALLY outstanding right now, and how much of the floorless is still out there so as to estimate how many shares we are REALLY going to have (100 MM?). Then we will need to see what additional problem loans might appear (and need to be written off, it is quite possible that the last write off did the job), particulalrly if our economy slows from the torrid pace of 3.6% to 2% next year. Since most of the loans are at the margin, it is quite possible that a slow down in the economy will have an amplified effect on deliquency rates. The chart shows no signs of a real bottom as yet. Zeev