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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (6831)	12/18/1997 8:14:00 PM
From: John A. Shaffer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Thanks for the comments. I agree that QNTM will recover in the future, however, in the short-run I think that there may be some upside potential in the box makers since they certainly must be gaining some avantages from the reduced component prices. I'm not saying we should abandon the DD makers altogather, only take advantage of the present situation. None of the box makers have pre-announced and their stocks still have been beaten down. John

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (6831)	12/19/1997 9:46:00 AM
From: Toko	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9124

Z: <Take a step back. DLT earning ABOUT $.40 PER QTR IS $1.60 annually. At a conservative 20 times earnings this is $32. And you get the ugly disk business free.> You have succinctly nailed the Quantum differentiator as it relates to stock price- DLT. Granted that the DD business will be in turmoil for a couple of quarters or so, or until someone(s) in the top 10 takes a major step back from their current position (this could have a major psychological effect on analysts and investors). At this point in time, we may not be able to imagine what the tbiggest factor might be to stimulate the sustained climb upward in stck price (just like I didn't imagine what the combination of factors would be to cause this huge drop). Since Michael Brown reduced public expectations for DLT growth (still quite a juicy business) and since everyone believes QNTM will continue as a leader in DD, I believe the scenario that "below $20 QNTM is currently oversold". I expect some amount of the big, smart money to jump back into QNTM fairly soon (maybe just after the new year), to reposition with these juicy prices in the teens or low 20's. It will probably take some time to get back above $30, but I feel getting and staying above $20 near term is more likely than a dip below $15. I'm staying long. TOKO