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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (12040)	12/21/1997 3:02:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Brad, I agree completely. As I see it, either the markets will eventually violate the October lows or we're moving higher. A trading range in this vicinity won't last forever. I agree that quickly falling rate are not constructive. I don't see that happening yet, or at all. If that were to happen, it might have begun by now. It seems that these markets like to overreact in both directions. Your suggestion that earnings may not be so bad in '98 seems plausable and is an interesting notion. I get the feeling that the worst news may not yet be out, but is already in the market. Also, earnings may have very well been revised downward more than necessary and it could be back to business as usual in a few months. Meanwhile, this market is really shaking off bad news in a remarkable way. I don't want to see myself as a contrarian or otherwise. I'm just reading the chart as it appears to me. BWDIK GZ

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (12040)	12/21/1997 3:28:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

If you look at this website you will see that hardly more than 20,000 hits have been recorded. Many of these must be repeats--at least in my case I must have visited it 20 times. So maybe a few thousand people maximum have visited it. Suppose that only one in ten U.S. investors makes any use whatever of the Internet to check out investment advice and opinion. Aren't there now supposed to be something like forty million people participating in the stock market? One tenth of that would be four million. So maybe one investor in a thousand has visited this bearish website. That would be one tenth of one percent bears. I was going to throw in a factor of a hundred to be safe and say, well, maybe ten percent of the investing public might be bearish. But if you are in a mutual fund you obviously aren't really bearish at all. In any case, I think that genuine grade A pedigreed bears are in extremely short supply nowadays, and that in itself is a strong contrarian indicator. users.dircon.co.uk