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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3830)	2/15/2016 11:57:11 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26781

Hi Kirk and RtS, Let's take a look at things from a longer term view. Now we can talk about corections or we can talk about long term bottoms. Corrections are waves with in a long term impulsive wave. Long term market bottoms occur when impulsive waves down bottom out. Let's look at this chart: stockcharts.com It may have been in a corrective mode ever since January or July of 2014.(Trace back to the peak or double peak of Macd). We also have a much smaller CCI negative now vs last august 2015 yet Macd is much lower and the price is very close to the same = posistive divergence. Macd is slow to change and many other oscillators respond much faster. This corrective wave has been brewing quite a while and Rts is very correct to note that many stocks are 20% below their peaks. He's also correct to note that what HAS been happening is rotation. Rotation is the essence of a continuing bull market. Absence of rotation is what defines a bear market. There is none and everything declines. Don't get me wrong here, this is not a sour grapes post, but when it comes to small cap semi's - I've not seen any bull market run yet. Cohu at 11.00 Aehr at 1.30 Brks at 8.30 Just 2 years ago marked an small leg up for Msft,Intc, and Csco - after years of profits and very nice growth in dividends. We must remeber what a fifth wave in an impulsive market looks like - all stocks advance even the teriary small caps. If we remember the run up from October 1998 to Feb 2001 those small cap semi's which were lifting off in the final 5th wave of along bull wave up were doing 10-12 baggers. Currently the big caps are having a hard time getting a double Msft ,Intc and Csco some 16 years later of making money every year! I'm not feeling the euphoria we felt way back when - this makes me think we are in a corrective wave with in a long term impulsive up wave. As true as RtS's rules of bottoms are, there are big ugly impulsive down bottoms and there are corrective bottoms. The fact that Macd is lower than it has been for over the entire range of what I can get for free from stock charts - makes me think we have just seen or are seeing the final wave 5 of a big corrective ABC wave that started back in in July of 2014. Count a 3 up 3 down and 5 down by tracking the weekly Macd: stockcharts.com screencast.com Bob