Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (3833)	2/15/2016 12:36:03 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26782

You are right Bob. If you throw out any discussion of a bear market at all then any move higher from here to new highs would just be a continuation of an ongoing bull market. Even so volume is a very important indicator. Lets go back to 2011 when the market had rolled over and approached bear market status. What happened that kept that from becoming an actual bear market? QE-3 happened. And what that did to the weekly chart was give the S&P 500 and virtually every other major market index a huge thrust higher in up volume. What is going to happen next for the market? I don't know but we have not had a higher volume upside week since last summer. That tells me that the market is at risk of further downside. JMHO, RtS

To: robert b furman who wrote (3833)	2/15/2016 1:15:56 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Respond to of 26782

Check anyone who claims to be an expert at ew and ask them for a documented record of a model portfolio based on their calls. You KNOW if they were as good as claimed that they'd have a published record just as Buffett and GE have records for their stock performance for the various things (industries) they buy and sell using cash they generate from their trading and companies via dividends. I try to emulate them in how I disclose my record.... but few others do. Anyway, if it works for you, great! Rotation is the essence of a continuing bull market. The Bull has been dead for awhile. Low rates have held up the dividend payers otherwise we'd see the major indexes in a bear just like the Russell, Bio, etc. I've written about it in my newsletter but we've been in a "stealth bear market" Those end when they shoot the generals.... I think we're in that phase now. We COULD be making bottoms now very similar to those made in 2002/3 and 2008/9. MANY of the stocks I follow were much cheaper when I added to them last year than they were during this year's decline.... almost exactly how the last two major bottoms formed. Again... I think the odds of this are higher than a coin flip but not enough to gamble changing my asset allocation all that much. Then again, the market seldom gives you that opportunity.