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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4234)	12/30/1997 9:07:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

<Too many people are too bullish on this group.> Hasn't every major brokerage downgraded the group?? Certainly bullishness is WAY off its high...on this thread as well, by the way...which brings me to: <Twister, truthfully I don't know for sure when we will turn the corner. I've preached all along for threaders to use memory price models as your tool of an impending turn. Remember, that under my scenario equipment eps turn down in the second half of 1998. Hence, the name of this thread.> I've been reading the thread all year and don't remember you being bearish last summer, or any other time for that matter...where are all these bears suddenly comming from...interesting! DAK

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4234)	12/31/1997 1:45:00 AM
From: Aaron Zuckerman	Respond to of 10921

Jay and all, Here's another link to an article confirming that a Taiwanese DRAM maker is losing BIG money and expect to lose big money, in this case TI/Acer: news.com. Considering the rapidly decreasing prices and the losses of other DRAM makers it's astonishing that MU made money last quarter. Will they make money next quarter? And if they don't, do we need to surmise how the street will take it? I find myself increasingly in sympathy with your bearish scenario. How can DRAM makers justify spending billions on equipment when they are losing billions? It seems all too obvious. It seems probable to me that equip makers will lose money or see dramatic drops in earnings when they report Q1 '98 numbers, by then their backlogs may well have run dry. For those who are long (myself included, perhaps not for long though) I hope I'm wrong.