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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26690)	1/1/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: hpeace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

jim your questions: "The AP crisis" This positively effect Dell and in fact I was on record that dell would start crashing as ealy as feb 98 for the last 12 months. but , the Asia exchange rates gives dell such a cost boost that this may not happen now "INTC driving P II pricing into the sub zero market" What planet are you own. this helps dell not hurst them. todate cyrx chip was kep to real low price. if intel can get close to that then dell is in the hay. Can't beleive you can't see this, but , then again you probably didn't know that it was a cyrx chip in the super low pcs by cpq. "companies desire to deploy low cost machines that dell does not sell" Dell's pricvs are w/i % points of cpq's and your number 1 and 2 concerns keep dell in the ball game big time. I can't beleive you think what will save dell is a concern "general PC market saturation" the pc market and server market isn't saturated at all and MIS has plenty of money to spend on pc's.You still haven't answered why MIS has plenty of money. " poor demand for highpowered database software" the demand isn't poor. MIS is behind the curve on deployement of other technology . the money's in the budget for these data bases and etc. but, this is a case for orcl slide not dell. "A personal assualt on DELL by CPQ" most of the research I read indicates that except for recently cpq and dell are not getting eachothers customers. Only recent articles indicate this. the entire time cpq and dell has got the others share. and this has happened before. the market will grow 15% but cpq will grow 60% and dell 60% becuase the lower prices drive others out of the supply side and that means cpq and dell get more. This has happened at least 3 other times in the history of pc industry "relative slowing in servers as % of sales" you have no fact to back this up....servers in dells case are growing nicely. Your reference to class C is just your ignorance of MIS. people pay 200-800k for those servers, not 10k.... "Slowing in Q/Q and Y/Y earnings momentum" So, where is your proof here..post it "High relative valuation of the stock" this is the only concern...cpq and dell can both grow to support that P/E..lets see if they do I actually beleive that you are not 33 did not go to college and have just started following technology very recently. until now you traded bank stks or insurance companies, but not technology<ggg> maybe you even traded toothpick compnanies and can tell us about wood...but not technology.

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26690)	1/1/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Ok... so my mistake was not seeing the commercial... I'll keep my eye out for it a get specifics so I can post how CompUSA alone has shattered the price barrier that no one else can touch<ggg> Sorry if I came down on you too hard for not knowing a pentium from a pentiumII. I only post facts that are verifiable... right now I can't verify what's in the CPU P2 233 system for that price. I'm sure the commercial is sketchy in details. Now for your laundry list: The AP crisis, positive impact due to decreasing component costs INTC driving P II pricing into the sub zero market, positive impact, will allow Dell to enter this market when necessary and avoid AMD/CYRX... don't forget the LXr Intel is rolling out to support this cacheless version of the PII... margins on these systems could be healthy. companies desire to deploy low cost machines that dell does not sell, Dell sells a very low cost NetPC loaded with corporate management goodies for right at $1250 monitor included. The Optiplex G starts at $1037 w/o a monitor... how can you say Dell has no low cost offerings for corporations... keep in mind that the consumer sub-zeros getting all the media hype are not designed to work well in a corporate environment. Do you think big corporations are gonna buy cheap home PC's from the likes of CompUSA to be used as intranet terminals? Think again. The $799 w/o monitor Presario 2200 won't sell into this space as it wasn't designed for it. general PC market saturation, where is your proof... my IDC numbers say something different and, owning 6% of a market growing at 13% next year is far from saturation poor demand for highpowered database software, Huge demand for Internet servers A personal assualt on DELL by CPQ, gee, I had no idea they were actually competing with each other relative slowing in servers as % of sales, way off. wrong... where is your data? Slowing in Q/Q and Y/Y earnings momentum, This is factored in... no one knows what it will really be 3 years from now. Your betting it's gonna be worse than people think.. right? My conservative model puts earnings growth at 27% Y/Y in 12 quarters... we'll see. High relative valuation of the stock, Not relative to earnings growth. Can the stock go down? Is that what you're asking? sure. It can easily trade between 50 - 100 for the next few quarters... especially is things are deteriorating for Dell as you say they are. Keep in mind though that even if industry fundamentals falter, Dell is in a position to continue to grow and prosper... stockprice not withstanding. MEATHEAD