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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizhi who wrote (58969)	1/25/2017 10:14:35 PM
From: Shane M	1 Recommendation Recommended By staring Respond to of 78751

Hi Wizhi, I've seen persuasive arguments that margin debt might should be viewed as an effect of rising markets, rather than a cause of rising markets. Here's one link from Barry Ritholtz in April 2015, but I think I've seen several argue this about it's use as a predictor. bloomberg.com quote: "One day, this bull market will end. Whether it will be triggered by the Federal Reserve raising rates, accelerating inflation, valuation concerns or some geopolitical event is unknown today. But there will be an end, perhaps even a crash. History suggests that NYSE margin debt will be at all-time highs when that happens. But I strongly doubt its absolute level will give you much of a warning." all fwiw

To: Wizhi who wrote (58969)	1/26/2017 8:50:29 AM
From: Micah Lance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Very nice post. IMO, number 3 should be a yes. Central banks have been buying assets (bonds) like crazy. Our federal reserve owns $2.46T in treasuries (based on the latest data) plus however many treasuries are owned by other central banks. This demand is causing bond prices to rise hence bond yields going lower, my argument is that in a normal environment we would see bond yields higher than where they are now. As an example of the sovereign bond nuttiness, Spain's 10 year is trading at 1.5% yield which is lower than the US's 10 year yield of 2.5%. How can Spain be viewed as relatively stronger when they had no government leader for 6+ months and an unemployment rate of 20%+ is beyond me. It makes one wonder who is buying those bonds. If it helps, I am in the same boat as you. I am finding this market a nice test in patience :)

To: Wizhi who wrote (58969)	1/26/2017 10:15:11 AM
From: Spekulatius	2 Recommendations Recommended By Micah Lance staring Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Good post I would love to hear other opinions if you agree or disagree. As I'm struggling to find values in this market and having problem to emotionally be discipline (stay calm and not buy, as I think to many indicators says that the market very high/overvalued). A lot of people claim that there are always value stocks in the market even in a mature bull market where most stocks are richly valued. I tended to believe that as well, but found that when I dug too deep to find her den values, these value stocks, turned out to be fools gold when the tide goes the other way. I think it is better for most investors to recognize the situation as such and stop digging into obscure or hidden values and just wait until the situation changes and values are more readily available again.