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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (59133)	3/2/2017 6:38:18 AM
From: William Cloutier	1 Recommendation Recommended By staring Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78745

Now I can see why it can be hard to invest in a bull market. I'm 100% in cash due to my small capital and high transaction fees but I'm still searching for some opp. When ducks have fun on the pond, those on the side feel the urge to join it. When more and more ducks splash, the water level goes up. When is it the easiest to catch fish? When the water is too high or too low? Personally, I'm waiting on the beach and I'm gonna stay there until prices don't seem to be fully justified. I hear many people in my school that are very excited about the market and maybe It doesn't reassure me... and I'm not in a business school. Sorry for my English and hope you understand :) William

To: Paul Senior who wrote (59133)	3/3/2017 4:51:46 PM
From: MCsweet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78745

Regarding ALLY, I was a big cheerleader for that several dollars ago and got no response on this board. I just sold my final shares of ALLY on a huge run up in the stock, deteriorating credit performance on their Auto Receivables Trust, and a recent downgrade by Sandler O'Neil. Sandler just downgraded it to hold, which is maybe what I should have done. However, with a fairly valued stock, I don't feel like keeping on the significant risk that auto loans entail. Through the years it seems to me like some value investors feel compelled to jump on the bandwagon at times (out of peer pressure) and then later end up jumping off the bandwagon a year or two later at much worse prices. And for some reasons, when I am pounding the table on a stock that seems super cheap, I often get no response and then later people pick up on the stock. It must just be false optimism, but nowadays I view no response on a pick as a good contrarian sign :) Regarding staying in/out of the market, I would recommend sticking to one's guns, but staying humble about the market prognostications, as it is very difficult to forecast the market in the short term. In most cases I am against decisive actions such as moving to all cash or leveraging up. A little tactical rebalancing here and there (more cash in expensive periods like now) seems more reasonable to me. MC