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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

AQ, We have "Big Ten of Eleven" down today, Market inability to take out 280 SOX on a close as you have well aptly pointed out as key resistance does not bode well for the overall market, IMHO. I believe its time for a market adjustment on DOW and SPX and to lesser % extent NAZ relative to SOX to retrace an additional 20% (NAZ 15%) from these levels over the next six months. From a fundamental perspective, either earnings have to start catching up to stock valuations immediately or stock valuations must adjust downward back to equilibrium going forward. I have macro #'s to support this analysis that I won't be able to post until tomorrow. Risk in the market is very high now, IMHO. And, after three years of 20% + growth in the market, and no 20% + correction via DOW or SPX since 1990, probabilities from an actuarial standpoint alone dictate 98' will not be a market friendly year. One last thought, the second year of a presidential cycle marketwise from a historical perspective... has not been kind to the market. OMHO... Your prodigal brother... JT

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

AQ, SOX already testing critical 262 support level at the moment. My gut tells me in the short run, today or by the end of the week, this # is not going to hold and a test to 253 area is imminent... The confluence of events surrounding the broad market indices turning down will prove too much weight for this index to stand alone and tall and hold this support zone, IMHO. WHERE IS THE LEADERSHIP IN THE MARKET??? Nowhere to be seen from my vantage point. Take a look at May 97' when you have time on Dow chart. We are going to test 7150 to 7300 area with more resolve this time around. I'll give my two cents on other indices later. Gotta run.. JT

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IKe, I think you are dead on the money with your bond yield call backing up to 5.90% to 6.10% area. As you are well aware, bond/stock relationship at these levels is less a positive correlation than it was in the market in July 97'. Typically, lower bond yields translates into a friendly equity market behavioral relationship. Today, debate is going on that this is now not so. Why? Because interest rates going down (i.e bond prices up) has an inverse (negative) relationship WHEN MARKETS ENTER INTO DEFLATIONARY PERIODS OF TIME. This is the 64K question. Is it "asset inflation" that Mr. G was referring to in his speech or "price or commodity deflation"? Or is it simply show me the earnings (and if they don't come in) or show me the door? A little more meat to chew on... JT

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ, Your SOX support at 262 is holding well today. Care to time the short term market bounce to the upside? Perhaps more downside tomorrow 1/8/98 and then a short term rally... What do you think??

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 50167

Thank you very much for your interesting posts. RE: "I think Byron Wein and Abby expectations of 10% or 8% earning growth will be achieved- strong factory orders cannot be overlooked." You are slightly more positive than I am. I see about 5% growth for S&P 500 earnings, to approximately $49. Best wishes, I2

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Chirping JT welcome back from your long sabbatical- nice to see one of the finest genuine technician missed by every one back on SI- I am so happy to see you in good spirits- we all will benefit from your insight and you will bring some timely needed bear/bull balance to our thread. Welcome back again.