To: cfimx who wrote (6574 ) 1/8/1998 3:47:00 PM From: Alok Sinha Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
I will take a shot at responding to one of the ISSUES as you put it. Granted, DEC and HP offer customers a choice (so does IBM). However, it is unclear if their PC business adds a lot of shareholder value (for DEC it certainly dosen't; HP due to its position in printers,may be). Volume for the sake of volume is not necessarily good. In today's age towards inter-operability, choice does not have to come from the same vendor (esp. if offering that does not add value). SUNW will offer choice (through Darwin) to high end corporate users, but ensure that it adds to the bottom line. I also agree that 64 bit UNIX from DEC and HP will be more competitive in 1998, but SUNW is well positioned to compete (which is why McNealy and Co. are paid big bucks). The big advantage that SUNW has is in its vison with respect to network computing (which IBM is also subscribing to; I read in recent recent article in NetObjects that IBM has more than 2000 progammers working on improving Java which is more than SUN ) and the "Write once run everywhere" objective. This is already contributing to high end Server growth. In large corporations (and I work for one), there is increasing disillusionment with the continuous fat client software upgrade cycle, esp. because in terms of functionality not much value is being added. NT was a big step for MS, but for the nature of applications it is used for small and medium duty office functions (e-mail, spreadsheets , wordprocessing , web browsing, file exchanges) the current version suffices. Nobody in their right mind considers NT to be the platform for mission critical operations in banking, trading and finance, although a lot of front end systems are designed to run on NT due to ease of use and familiarity of end users. The next round of upgrade cycles in WP and Spreadsheet software will confirm that with repect to these products we are approaching saturation. I wouldn't short Microsoft because I think Gates is already investing in high growth industries and the Company will do fine - I just don't think software and operating system sales (in the current form) will provide the level of growth needed to maintain MS's current lofty multiples. Incidentally, I find it ironic that you are willing to concede that SUNW performed well in 1997 (for whatever reasons). Considering that you have been consistently bearish during the period (1997 and before) that SUNW was doing well by your own admission (due to success of Starfire, which contributes a measly 200 MM of 10B in total sales), what makes you so sure that your current projection for doom and gloom will come true. You have certainly rationalized the reasons for SUNW's demise (DEC and HP) but how are these arguments different with respect to future outcome than those before. I don't think any portion of my post would be objectively considered "shooting down the messenger", or would it? Regards Alok