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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2937)	1/17/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Respond to of 4697

I agree totally Zeev. Thats what I have been wondering. Since they cannot borrow anymore, they will stop this nonsencicle expansion in fab plants. Since Asia is a huge exporter and has a limited amount of internal demand, I must assume that world demand will still be about where it is now, and reports indicate that its growing. Hence, less fabs( and potentially less wafer plants) means this constant and growing demand will have to be satisfied with current, and perhaps decreasing supply. End result is at least stable prices, and perhaps price increases. Of course China still has a huge internal demand, but this works to the same scenario since they are going to have to be supplied, thus I put them in the net consumer catagory. I think that wafer and memory prices are starting to bottom out. It may not show up in this quarter, but possibly next and certainly the one after. Did MEMC pre-announce their earnings shortfall last quarter? I know they did the quarter before but cannot remember about the last one.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2937)	1/17/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: spiny norman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Zeev, re >>The main problem facing many chaebols is that before the won's collapse they had four times as much debt as assets. I think you mean "equity". Most entities that have more liabilities than assets are already insolvent. regards, spiny

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2937)	1/18/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: ----------	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Ooops. Sorry about that Zeev. At least I was correct that your actual rate would increase, not decrease. <g> Your example is excellent, and points to one of the major reasons I am as confident about the HK/China stock markets as you are about WFR's future price potential. This is from the Friday South China Morning Post: Dai Xianglong repeated the message given on Thursday to US Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, and which will be given to International Monetary Fund managing director Michel Camdessus today, that China has no need or desire to devalue its currency. ''Our foreign exchange reserves reached US$139.9 billion at the end of last year. This year our international balance of payments will remain good, with a strong growth in exports and China remaining number two in the world in inward foreign investment,'' he said. Another lesson is the need to monitor closely foreign debts, with the Asian crisis in many countries not due to budget deficits or insufficient foreign reserves but private and commercial firms borrowing too much, especially short-term debt, and not reporting it to central banks. ''China will closely examine the qualifications of companies wanting to borrow and severely punish those who do so without approval,'' Mr Dai said. As you most likely are aware, "severly punish" in China does NOT mean the defendant gets to hire Johnny Cochran & F. Lee Bailey, and then go play golf after the trial. Regards, Doug