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To: Rarebird who wrote (111801)	4/1/2020 11:20:37 AM
From: Horgad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

US population is about 5.4X that of Italy. Italy has peaked a few days back on a new infection rate but has many more deaths queued up yet to endure. Italy current deaths 12,400, So say 20k by the time their curve is over. Italy's worst day I think was 969 deaths in 24 hours (X 5.4 for the US? I hope not.) Assuming US and Italy are equivalent in their responses 20k X 5.4k = 108k. There is still much room for hope for a lower number...like US is starting with more hospital beds per capita and/or US responds more aggressively and/or US learns from other countries on best treatments and/or some "new" treatment becomes available. But I believe the larger estimated being thrown around are derived from US's poor/slow start so far . Is it responsible to tell people how many people will die? YES, imho, because fear may prevent deaths. It may the opposite of a self fulfilling prophecy. If the prophecy creates enough fear, then maybe the prophecy won't come true. Disclaimer: just a WAG on my part.

To: Rarebird who wrote (111801)	4/1/2020 12:25:41 PM
From: rogermci®	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

I think that statement is fear mongering and reckless. But there are those who would 100% disagree with me. When all is said and done I think our number of deaths will be less than the lower 100k number but nevertheless a tragic event. We will learn much from this and be a better nation going forward despite the pain suffered. We are resourceful and resilient people. An unexpected positive news event will soon unfold.