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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Winfastorlose who wrote (9068)	4/7/2020 10:00:57 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26513

The models work just fine. The "issue" is estimating what R0 is. We know from places like Wuhan, NOLA, Northern Italy and cruise ships it runs about 2.2 without counter measures. Lock everyone inside and eliminate every social contact so you die of starvation when food you've stored runs out and R0 is zero since you can't infect anyone. The virus "died" and everyone who has months of food stored survives to continue society. The actual number is somewhere in between zero and 2.2. Fortunately, Social distancing and self quarantine of anyone showing symptoms works pretty well. Like Wuhan, the models max predictions don't come to pass when counter measures work. In Wuhan, they had a complete lock down. Here we were allowed to go shopping for groceries whenever we wanted without masks, go for hikes every day, play tennis and basketball until just recently, etc. Eliminating most social contact but grocery shopping with masks, gloves and barriers often up between shoppers and checkers, is like stepping on the throat of a downed competitor then kicking him in the head with your boot. A complete lock down where you are only allowed outside once a week to get groceries could be the stake through the zombie's head, but hopefully we don't need that.