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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9396)	4/22/2020 12:53:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By Brian Sullivan Lee Lichterman III Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26784

I think it is reasonable to expect S&P 500 decline in revenue of 8% this year and 3% next year. Which means that EPS will be substantially lower (I am guessing down 25% and 8%). Even without applying the multiple expansion, this means at most SPX should be at 2500 and not 2900. Give it a risk premium, and somewhere between 2000 - 2300 is where we should be. But I don't argue with the tape. Still, I think it is more likely than not that we will revisit those levels by July.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9396)	4/22/2020 5:43:41 PM
From: Winfastorlose	1 Recommendation Recommended By rogermci® Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 26784

There is already a massive collapse in State and Municipal revenues. Taxes of all types will be on the table to increase significantly. Here in California, even with oil trading at historic lows, our gasoline prices are still north of $2.50 to $3.00 (depends on the area). How will they pay for road & bridge repairs with much lower gas taxes coming in? And that is just one example of the coming problems. Sales tax revenues which help fund state and local governments have also been wiped out. How will they make up the shortfalls? Income tax revenues will also be way down since they have shut down small businesses everywhere and they account for 70% of the employment in the USA. You just can't shut down everything and not destroy your system. Even if the shut down were some type of remedy, (and I believe it is not), then is the remedy worse than the disease?