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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9487)	4/26/2020 7:40:56 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26422

Exactly right. Bingo, etc. It's a subtle statistical point that escapes most. Most here are math impaired (charting isn't math by the way) and couldn't comprehend how we'd even get to 50k cases a few weeks ago. Now we've shot past 55k deaths. We have about 330 million people. The rest of the world has about 7500 million. So the rest of the world has over 22x as many people as in the US. But we have 1/2 as many positive outcomes as that 22x larger population group.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9487)	4/26/2020 7:55:53 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26422

If you look at the tail of my charts, the number of cases as a percentage of cases so far is now increasing again. And the number of new deaths is flat at 5% as many as so far which means it is actually creeping up, too. My chart is relative to what has happened so far. That means staying e.g. at 5% guarantees that the number is rising. In both charts, they must continue declining to indicate positive progress. They actually must decline to maintain the status quo, too (i.e. remaining at "just" 2000 deaths per day, which is a smaller percentage each day of the overall cumulative total).